trashed and down 6pc overnight, page-8

  1. 1,539 Posts.
    At the end of the day it still comes down to simple economics.

    DEMAND vs SUPPLY

    Rule changes by the LME on these last 2 occassions havent altered the structural reality, that demand exceeds supply and will continue to do so for years to come.

    Substitution, LME inventory "sharing", LME warrant settlement rule changes, institutional speculation driving up PON are all somewhat perihperal.
    PON will come back for some time, and that may be a good thing for the long term mkt and not so good for marginal producers...but I cant believe the Ni crash is upon us.

    I guess this is where we vote with our money and our kahonees...for me the mkt retracement today will still the Ni producers reclaim the lost ground over the not too distant future. I subscribe to the theory that the real sign of the fat woman singing is when you see the desperate lowend m & A activity occurring...and that just ain't happening in Nickel yet.
    China, Brasil, India, Nth/Sth Korea / USA / Japan / Europe ...a lot of Nickel portfolio risk mitigation occurring with demand spread across such a varied and booming mkt spread.
    Once some of the next generation Nickel demand starts to filter through I still think the PON will be nth of us$26/lb.
    Yes the instos/speculators have the LME mkt place running scared, and have introduced us$3-$4 puffery /lb by their speculative long positions...but youve got to keep going back to the fundamentals.
    DEMAND vs SUPPLY

    For me its more IGO, MCR,VRE, ZFX, MGX whenever you have days like today. Panicked selling/sellers CAN make great buying opportunities if you know your stock and sector well enough.

    MCR has only fallen because it is currently sooo leveraged to PON, but with easy falls come easy gains now as the PON or reserves upgrades become positive.

    IMHO just hang tough if your not a daytrader...unless you know something better .....and Id love to know what that is.
    Just my uneducated ramblings guys/gals.
 
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