Hi Beardy,There have been a few posters who have made...

Hi Beardy,

There have been a few posters who have made projections of ABU's share price. The most outrageous have been $1, $5 and even $10!

My belief that ABU will reach 10c+, at some stage, follows on from statements the from 2 other brokers, posted quite a while ago, that ABU should attain 7c and another broker's prediction posted this week was looking at the 6c to 9c range.

My figure of 10c+ is based up the belief and the confidence that ABU will begin full on mining in the next 6 months, possibly April? That the head grades will be a little better than expected, that more Gold veins and drilling sites will be found, and that ABU will be mining 150 000 tonnes of ore per annum for around 70 000 ounces of gold, (at 14g/t), for a profit of $35m to $50m at today's Gold price.

At 10c/share the company's market cap is $330m. Working on p/e ratios of 5 to 8, I think that 10c per share is achievable. It might take 6 months, it might take 2 years? Whatever, that is my target sp to either get out, or continue holding for more upside.

That is all based on predicted outcomes from ABU. If these outcomes fall shot, then so will the sp. Then again if Gold has a rally next year, or ABU's predictions have been too conservative then the sp may rocket past 10c.

I know from some workers onsite that ABU has a belief that it will be a 30c+ company some day. As long as there isn't a takeover! I do strongly believe that there will a share consolidation next year, probably 10:1, once mining is underway and good money is coming in!

But these are just my thoughts. Others have predicted much pain still to come, and others have predicted a much higher price, even $1+.

Time will tell.

Many conservative investors are not buying yet, they are waiting to scrutinise the full trial mining results. And some ultra-cautious investors are waiting to buy when ABU actually commissions the mine, with all ABU's previously made predictions being in place.

Investors need to make their own minds up about their exposure to risk. ABU is still a spec stock until it starts producing. But gee, it has some of the best untouched Gold grounds in Australia, and partners who are now drilling other tenements for which ABU will receive income, if they find economical mines. For a spec stock, it doesn't get much better than this! But at this stage there is still risk.

My belief is that in the long term, 6 months or more, that risk will turn into reward with a significantly higher sp.

So should investors buy now or wait to 2014? I'd be watchful and cautious. Check out the trial mining results and take it from there. As of today, I wouldn't be rushing into ABU, unless you are like me, already owning ABU shares and doing some averaging down on the total portfolio buy price. There's a lot more info to come from ABU yet, the trial mining results, the mining licence, when full scale mining will commence etc.

Good luck to all who are considering buying ABU shares, or those who are already holding them!

(My opinions only and the figures used are close approximations, as I haven't had time to check them in detail.)