re: trials / gdb Hi Gdb,We are in a situation where some Bios...

re: trials / gdb Hi Gdb,

We are in a situation where some Bios have again become cheap IMHO. This is caused by money moving into golds and this affects even the nickels.

Some time ago someone told me that NRT was a bad bet because a general chart said that only so many percent will move into Phase III. And he applied this right across the board.

What he didn't realize was that I was in NRT at a cost of $1.75 in Oct. last year and when he brought up this point, it was $4. A pity that the chart put him off as it reached $8.80 not long ago and is about $7.20 now after a correction.

I like to pick stocks which I think could become big winners. It is the law of averages: say, you pick up 400% on one stock but lose 80% on another. Who cares except the investor who was silly enough not to cover both but backed the wrong one.

Your theory cannot be validly applied, I think, one main reason is that it took the Applications too long to become FDA Patents.

Also, Aussie Companies have slowly moved up from the initial stage to stages II and III and these represent some potential drugs. PTD has a drug which had problems with J&J but they will get some royalties somehow starting with the agreement with Abbott.

I believe that NRT will eventually come out with some more drugs; NV07A is already completed and is being commercialized. I can't vouch for it but this Company could leave any existing Aussie one for dead.

PBT has a powerful drug which had excellent Phase II results. The new one is even better (PBT-2) in animal trials and will be clinically trialled in 2004. (Alzheimers, Parkinsons).

And the world's finest people recognize this could become *the* drug to use. Yet, the share price wallows.

EPT and MBP also need some time to finish their trials. Sofar, results have been very good.

You just have to give the Aussie scene a couple of years and you will see the difference.

As to SBP, the price could have been higher, wasn't it for the overall treatment it was given; the PR wasn't that good and the waiting time was not normal.

Sure, they needed to learn the ropes but I am a reasonable investor in Bio stocks and wasn't impressed with what I saw, particularly in the field of Capital Management.

But I have options in SBP and give it a reasonable chance.

Phase I isn't too important and they should pass it because it involves the safety factor: other people already had used this drug before.

Of course, that is my opinion; readers please do your own research.

SBP:
http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=1&tid=54890&sym=SBP#138170

Cheers,

Gerry
Once SBP has finalized disposing of their remaining mine tenements, the situation will be clearer.