The following is a summary of Trindade North as I see it......

The following is a summary of Trindade North as I see it... which is just one persons view after all.....

My understanding is that Vale have drilled up to a point where they can exercise their option to acquire Trindade North. They had a very good idea what they were looking for, and where and what to expect.... and their drilling confirmed that. Their knowledge of the geology of the area is first class of course.

For the basic terms and conditions of the Deal with AVB, look up the past announcement.

There are provisions in the deal that are confidential so the whole book is not open.

If it is a first class magnetite deposit, and all indications are that it is, then I see no reason that AVB should receive anything less than the full amount of $40m. Vale did not stop drilling in order to avoid finding more iron and hence cheat AVB. The impression is that they were extremely satisfied and will definitely take it, and they simply moved on to other exploration, maybe on the other side of the tenement boundary adjoining the TN property. Who knows..

The interest in potentially getting TN early in my understanding is that the high grade ore can be used for grade-controlling at the adjacent big mine.

TP has said to me that in the event that the deal goes through, Vale get the lot. That is if they find copper later it is theirs.. full stop. That is not to say that there is no provision for right of first refusal should any copper be found in small quantities later say....

The Vale deal holds the key to AVB's immediate future.

If $40m goes ahead now, then AVB and its SP will transform overnight I believe. 7cents will be history. It can start to mine the HGZ at Antas South which ensures a reliable source of funds for several years, regardless of any world events. Also the drilling program can expand greatly.

On the other hand if not, and another $1m is received, then AVB will simply drill to expand its JORC copper and have to budget carefully over the next 12 months.

Two very different scenarios.!

So if you believe that the signs say Vale will buy now, then AVB would have to be a very strong BUY as its SP could soar, maybe exceeding past highs... at least before easing back a little as per usual.

OR.. if you are inclined to think Vale will save their cash, then a lot of the excitement could come out of AVB, at least for another 12 months.

AVB has sent out mixed signals... and it is VERY tight-lipped. Its security is good... too good unfortunately. Makes guessing hard. Not a word about it from Management. Silence.

Recent director purchase could suggest no $40m deal, or then again, it could be in two months which might be far enough time separation.?

Lots of talk about Mine Plans, drilling, and even the DSO is on the table. None of which would happen unless big cash was imminent.... maybe.

Setting aside Pedra Branca drilling, which is interesting of course, AVB is at a crossroads.

BUY or SELL, depending on what you reckon Vale will do. Weigh the odds. What will happen to SP if they pay $40m now.... versus if not. What are the respective probabilities.

Bet on the Red or the Black... step right up... place your bets :)