QHL 5.00% 19.0¢ quickstep holdings limited

Appreciate the optimism but all we're doing is returning back to...

  1. 37 Posts.
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    Appreciate the optimism but all we're doing is returning back to the 8-10c range we've been at for 5+ years, which in theory, is a fair value for the current business based around existing contracts (you know, expected future cashflow and all that). Nothing has changed. There won't be any breakout when we hit 7c as there is no new business. There may be an adjustment to the price based around what the new MRO business can bring in, but nothing major.

    New JSF orders don't really mean much in the short term as that's a production line that is going to run for years and is already baked into the current price. By my basic math after reviewing the Flight Global World Air Forces Directory (https://www.flightglobal.com/download?ac=75345) there are:
    • 677x F-35 on order for foreign military sales (FMS)
    • 2072x F-35 on order for US
    LM are smashing out around 160-170 per year presently, so the F-35 has around 15-16 years to run. That's assuming costs are kept under control and there are no cancellations (which there will almost certainly be from the US).

    On the C-130J side, this is a dying beast. Only a bit over 100 tails in the backlog with 32x C-130J on order for FMS and 80x C-130J on order for US. Not sure what the current production rate is. From past press releases QHL has been punching out around 20 sets per year, so there's maybe 5-6 years left on this contract.

    I've been a long believer in this stock and have held it for very long time, but I'm getting skeptical now. The technology hasn't been widely adopted and their current contracts are in the regular autoclave market in which there are plenty of competitors. To be honest I would have probably cashed out already if I hadn't lost so much money. I'm down so much now there's no point in selling unless I wanted to offset a massive gain in another part of my portfolio.
    Last edited by krager: grammar 11/06/21
 
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