ECL 0.97% $3.07 excelsior capital ltd

Your quite correct, nobody trusts them and the most likely...

  1. 1,561 Posts.
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    Your quite correct, nobody trusts them and the most likely outcome would be to create and environment where Trojan & MMC can exit so it only has to be an offer slightly above the 63c. they don't need to buy back as the SP will collapse once the buy back is voted down.

    Let's face it, if they really wanted the buy back to go through would Catalen or his cronies already be accumulating A Class shares since the last vote?

    I believe they are holding out trying to win the attrition game. The longer they hopld out the greater the loss for A Class holders. If they take another 6 to 12 months to get the buy backover the $1.00 they have actually had use of that cash to generate further returns, yet the poor A Class holder is going backward in value.

    Time is money, so the longer the board take the larger the value loss for the A Class holders.

    Unless trojan can be replaced by an agressive Hedge fund that will accumulate A Class shares the game will continue.

    If any legal action is taken the board can always reinstate the A Class dividend pay out 4 quarters at a cost of $3.92M and then pay a ordinary dividend for the sum of $14m which would require taking out $9m in debt and then we are back to a situation where the business cannot pay any dividends going forward until the debt is reduced. Which could mean a further 3 to 5 years of no dividend.

    So taking this into account 63c was the last offer (that didn't get up) add 14c to it being the potential dividend and maybe the offer that might come in around 77c. Who knows but the value of the A Class shares are only holding up based on a promise that dividends will be paid or teh buy back occur. My view is that's not what the board has signalled at all.

    i will buy low and sell on the up's

 
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$3.07
Change
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$3.50 5000 1
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