Troy Administration, how would it look like?

Sorry folks for one last post, but I think as both bulls and bears do not think the unthinkable it is time to do so.

End of March Troy had 21.2m in liquidity. As there is nearly no way they can go belly under in the June quarter the September quarters $10m minimum liquidity is valid. That means Troy has $11.2m left. The gold inventory counts to the liquidity per the Investec facility.

The "mine plan" they announced would let them come through. If grades are below the assumed 2.4 g/t and at 2 g/t as in the March quarter Troy will go belly up end of September.

Cash outflows will be $8m per quarter in this case.
$21.2m - 8m - 8m = 5.2m, nearly everything in gold inventory and nearly no cash left.
The outflows will only consist of 3m operational loss, 13m is direct payments to Investec.

Troy will then consist of:
1. 30% share of Casposo
2. 100% share of a set of companies we call Troy Guyana
3. Losses carried forward of at least $180m = tax credits
4. US$21.2m debt to Investec left (snapshot after September payment) = A$28.2m
5. Hedge 9500 ounces at $1095 = A$2m negative
No other cash or debt of any significance (remember, we are at Troy parent balance sheet here)

Casposo NPV is $53m (Austral Gold), so 30% of that: $16m. Austral may buy at $7m. What would a buyer pay in a firesale? $2m, very low. Casposo is mortgaged to Investec and they would sell to a buyer. A$2.7m

So we can simplify the Troy "balance sheet"
1. 100% share of Troy Guyana
2. Losses carried forward $180m = tax credits
3. A$27.5m debt to Investec, due

As Troy Guyana too is mortgaged to Investec it gets easier:
1. Losses carried forward $180m = potentially A$54m at 30% tax rate
2. A$27.5m debt to Investec minus sales price of troy Guyana to a third party

Did we forget something?
What happened so far?
Troy financed the construction of Karouni. Karouni made operational profit, but needed capex spending. This is done via intercompany debts. I have taken a look into the operational and investing cash flows. Troy Guyana received net roughly $80m development + $11.5m capex (already adjusted for op. profits paid to parent company) + $3m from June and September quarters.

So the Troy parent "balance sheet" end of September will look like this:
1. Losses carried forward $180m = potentially A$54m at 30% tax rate
2. A$27.5m debt to Investec minus sales price of troy Guyana to a third party
3. A$94.5m debt owed to Troy by Troy Guyana

I think there is only one price for Troy Guyana: 0.

Who will buy Troy Guyana? The debt of $94.5m to Troy will have to be paid by the new buyer. Nobody will pay more than 0 in that case.
A negative value? Investec may add in money to a "buyer", but Troy will not be liable for the that negative value. So no way.

What are tax credits worth? Maybe not much. So we assume 0 too.
So the Troy parent "balance sheet" end of September will look like this:
1. A$27.5m debt to Investec (after the "sale" of Troy Guyana to a third party at 0)
3. A$94.5m debt owed to Troy by the third party via Troy Guyana
=A$67m left for shareholders = 14 cents per share

So if Investec pulls the plug... not bad for shareholders. IF abuyer at 0 can be found. Troy Guyana essentially has a $94.5m minimum price and there will be no buyer.

So we know Investec cannot use the mortgaged shares of Troy Guyana and just sell.

What will happen instead? Investec will try to make Troy's administrator forgive some of the intercompany debt. If they find a buyer at $30m to cover their capital they will try to force Troy to forgive the intercompany debt. But that may be impossible in this case.

Remember: Troy Guyana is not insolvent. A$30m or US$22.5m are $90/reserve ounce, US$321 per annually produced ounce. This figures are very low and maybe even too low for fire sale prices. The administrator has significant reasons to not cancel the intercompany debt and block the sale to at least wait for a higher price based on common yardsticks for prices.
Remember, the operational loss per quarter was only $1.5m. Without exploration operational earnings of 0.5m after capex. If they are treating slightly better grades or have a slightly lower strip ratio they will be making $2.5m to $5m positive cashflow per quarter (just Troy Guyana). Sell an asset for $30m when it is making $10m to $20m positive cashflow per year? The administrator will repay Investec with that cashflow.

In conclusion Investec's mortgage on the Azimuth group companies may be unenforcable. They will not find a buyer at the implicit minum price of nearly $100m due to the intercompany debt.