TRY troy resources limited

Before interest payments and slippage costs, no exploration...

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    Before interest payments and slippage costs, no exploration costs.

    30.September
    cash 36.4m
    debt 51.3m
    net debt: 14.9m
    cumulative production for the CY: 48k ounces
    AISC without royalty (8%): US$1173/oz
    overall mining costs for 13.3k ounces in the quarter: $21m (assuming 1US$=1.35A$)

    31. December
    cash 36.4m
    -$6.5m debt repayment at start of October
    +$12.8m capital raise from private investors
    -$2m hedge loss (assuming 13.25k ounces@1103, gold price $1215 avg., 1.35 exchange rate)
    =40.7m (noit considering interest payments)
    debt 51.3m
    -$6.5m
    =44.8m
    net debt before operational result = -4.1m
    last guidance: 70k - 48k = 22k ounces
    actual production: 64k - 48k = 16k ounces
    AISC per ounce: A$21m / 16k ounces / 1.35 A$/US$ = US$972
    +US$97 royalty (8%) = AISC US$1069
    operational result : 16k ounces * ($1215 - $1069) = US$2.336m = A$3.15m
    cash and debt after operational results:
    cash 43.85m
    debt 44.8m
    net debt 0.95m

    31. March 2017 assuming $1150 gold price, 4.56k
    cash 43.85m
    -$6.7m debt repayment in January
    -hedge loss 13.5k * ($1150 - $1103) / 1.35 = A$0.85m
    = 36.3m
    debt 44.8m
    -$6.7m
    = 38.1m
    operational result:
    22.5k ounces production, A$21m / 1.35 / 22.5k = AISC US$691
    Royalty (8% * $1150) = US$92
    AISC with royalty: US$$783
    Margin: $1150 - $783 = US$367
    Operational cash flow: US$367 * 22.5k ounces = US$8.26m = A$11.15m
    Cash after operational results:
    A$47.45m
    net cash:
    A$9.35m

    For CY 2017 I expect ($1150 gold, 1.35 exchange rate)
    -hedge loss (45k ounces * US$47): US$2.1m
    -debt repayment: US$15m
    -operational results: US$33m
    -net earnings (no tax because of loss carry over) US$30.9m = A$41.7m = 9.2 cents per share

    Cash:
    A$43.85m + US$33m - US$2.1m - US$15m = A$65.3m
    Debt:
    A$44.8m - US$15m = A$24.5m
    Net cash:
    A$40.8 = 9 cents per share

    So at $1150 gold price Troy is backed 62% by net cash end of 2017 and at a p/e ratio of 1.57.
 
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