Troy has lots of exploration potential. Maybe even an elephant....

Troy has lots of exploration potential. Maybe even an elephant. Exploration upside should always come for free.

So what is left?
A bad quarter and low reserve life. The bad quarter is gone. The reserve life needs some work. But it is only a question of time to bundle a new package of all existing and recent data + ug. 7 years reserve life as originally planned + 30% reconciliation + 1 year due to recent drill results, roughly 10 years.
That should yield a multiple of the current market cap. There is a case for Troy being worth several hundred percent more on a relative basis. But it is clear that even assuming no ug operations being feasible the undervaluation is at least 50%. Without the June quarter Troy would probably cost $1.20 per share now.

The unique situation is that Troy is a low cost, low leverage stock with 50% undervaluation or a 100% gain if the valuation gets to par.

That means at $1950 gold price margins of the typical gold stock will increase 150%.
Troy's margin will increase from $800 to $1400, only a 75% increase. But due to the undervaluation Troy will increase 1.75 * 2 = 3.5, a 250% gain and outperforming the miners with ordinary margin.
Above $2000 gold price leverage for all miners will be low, the no meaningful difference.
So Troy has roughly the same or better upside than any miner.

But the shocker is if we look at the downside and $950 gold price.
Troy's margin will decrease from $800 to $400. But 0.5 * 2 = 1.0, so the stock price should keep its current level.

Just imagine what a $950 gold price means for other miners!

We get full participation to the upside and the downside is fully covered.

At $950 gold price
0.28m ounces in reserves + 0.05m ounces (estimate for recent results) = 0.33m ounces
0.33m ounces * 1.25 (reconciliations) = 0.412m ounces
0.412m ounces * US$400 margin = US$165m
US$165m - US$40m debt + $10m hedge book gains = US$135m = A$178m = A$0.52/share