troy's amended contract

It's getting close to December when Troy's new contract commences.

I tried to understand why Troy would be happy to prefer an 'at risk' deal rather than the normal salaried contract plus incentives.

A reminder - Troy was on $650k plus STIs (short term incentives). The Board are very happy with him so presumably he would have been getting an increase from December. He also received STIs of $145k and $203k in the preceding two years.
He gave up $150k p.a.plus any STIs and LTIs in favour of an at risk scheme offering him shares based on achieving share price targets.

Target share price (30 day VWAP preceding 1 July 2016)
Price Number of rights that vest
< $1.00. Zero
$1.00. 1.25 million
$1.33. 2.5 million
$1.67. 5 million

Troy doesn't strike me as the gambling type and has a 3 year history at TAP as being very considered and commercial re. the way he goes about business. The share price at time of announcement was 57.5 (vwap) so he is another 5.5c down at the current time !

It then begs the question as to why he would do it !

Possible answers are :-
- he knows what the gas leases are really worth !
- he realises that the market has totally under-estimated the value of Manora (and the potential of this being larger than current estimations)
- he believes that dividends will flow from Manora cash
- he believes that Taunton will end up being commercial
- believes that the market does not value the other WA leases
- ? any other suggestions

Bottom line is that he is sacrificing a great deal if the share price doesn't at least double over the next 2 1/2 years.

Btw - I don't believe that Starfish had any influence over his decision. It was a wildcat with no 'carry' and therefore the result was not unexpected.