I've been running some numbers on the downgrade. This is clearly extremely disappointing, but with the share price down ~40%, its always good to take a fresh look before hitting the sell button;.
- I've assumed TRS generates about $9m NPAT for the full year 2019, reflecting a modest loss in H2 in line with H2 2018 (I can build a case for a higher or lower number, but this seems reasonable given various initiatives that should impact the H2 result);
- This should mean an EBITDA (before any lease adjustments under the new standard) of ~$33m;
- These numbers should allow a dividend of about 19c for the full year, and free cashflow (after dividends) of about $5M, with a year end cash balance FY 2019 of c$20m;
- At the current share price, this gives a fiscal 2019 EV of $60m, EV/EBITDA of 1.8x, P/E of 8.6x, and a dividend yield of 7% (9% grossed up for franking credits).
- EV/EBITDA of 1.8x is extremely low for a company with net cash, profitable and still generating good free cashflow;
- Accordingly, if this doesn't shake out a private equity bidder, then I don't see what will, as a low EBITDA multiple drives a very attractive private equity IRR;
- This obviously assumes that the business model is still viable, but given the scale and position of TRS and the success of this format in US, UK and Canada, I don't see why it can't thrive with the right strategy.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- TRS downgrade and outlook
I've been running some numbers on the downgrade. This is clearly...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 41 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add TRS (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
$3.10 |
Change
0.010(0.32%) |
Mkt cap ! $115.6M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$3.08 | $3.12 | $3.08 | $130.6K | 42.21K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 6966 | $3.09 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$3.20 | 700 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 6966 | 3.090 |
4 | 20796 | 3.070 |
1 | 511 | 3.060 |
5 | 11606 | 3.050 |
1 | 1000 | 3.040 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
3.200 | 700 | 2 |
3.300 | 1050 | 3 |
3.310 | 3499 | 1 |
3.370 | 150 | 1 |
3.380 | 150 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 08/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
TRS (ASX) Chart |