Welcome back, madamswer.
In the stock that I referred to, CIM (which is of course irrelevant to this thread), ACS of Spain, through Hochtief, hold over 70% and with a mix of buybacks and creap, have gradually been climbing towards the 90% compulsory acquisition threshhold.
For the most part CIM, (or Leighton, as it once was) has been an excellent investment - I first bought at 81¢, and have held since 1990 - and with the departure of LLC from engineering, will soon be the only major ASX listed engineering and construction firm. Under normal circumstances, it should be a Conviction Buy.
But by my calculation, ACS will get to 90% in about 3 years - or perhaps less with onmarket buybacks - and I believe they'll then be under no obligation to offer a fair and reasonable price for mopping up the minority holdings. All things being equal, CIM could then be back to it's all-time high of $65; I doubt ACS would be thrilled with paying that. Hence the insomnia.
[They may decide not to bother consolidating, but it was their implied intention when they bought out Hochtief, and they've never denied it, nor reduced the buyback schedules.]
TRS holders don't currently face this dilemma, but if there is another take over attempt which results in Allenford controlling (say) 65% and then achieving a turnaround in the Company fortunes, then they one day might.
So, what is the justification for the creep provisions? Definitely not to eliminate green [or black-] mail; it justs reverses the rôles.
Welcome back, madamswer. In the stock that I referred to, CIM...
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