"Presumably TRS will be back to its pre-takeover level of around $2.20 after the offer expires today?"
I don't think so.
Because there have been two major changes - one "positive" and one negative" - subsequent to the stock trading at $2.20:
1. An acquirer has appeared and made a bid for the company and is likely to remain engaged with a view to increasing the value of its investment (by gaining management control in tandem with acquiring the rest of the business); and
2. The company reported financial result which was weak and which provided for poor trading prospects
I think that the option value from the existence of an indicative acquirer of the company more than offsets the negative trading update, meaning that I think the share price will trade below $2.70 tomorrow, but not quite as low as $2.20.
I'm guessing somewhere around $2.40/$2.50 is where VWAP will end up tomorrow.
But whether it is worth buying the stock at that level is separated debate because, even if Allensford do end up acquiring the company the long way at $2.70, it is going take the better part of six months for it to achieve that, so after incorporating the time value of money, a the prospect of a ~10% investment return is not really worth it, for mine. Especially not on a risk-adjusted basis.
If, for some reason some holders with hot hands sold the stock down to $2.00 out of despair/frustration/boredom, then that would be an investment proposition to me.
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