"P.S. what a pleasure to engage with thoughtful posters and not have to handle aggression & righteousness."
I totally agree. My guess is that deep down, we probably all agree on several things;
1) RWD is fundamentally a good bet and probably represents a good sector of the market to be in long term (why else would we bother posting here, right?).
2. RWD, rightly or wrongly, has had more than its share of disappointment (sorry!) over the past 2-3 years.
3. The general market state is cr@p (and generally no fault of ours, or of Australia in general, or of RWD in particular, and none of this helps RWD. The timing of our good news, in the traditionally slack time of the business calendar, may not have helped push the SP as high as some might like
4).Dealing with the Martu has been incredibly frustrating (from our perspective) to all and sundry. My bet would be ESPECIALLY MR. HOWEVER, from THEIR perspective there is nothing extraordinary about what has happened. They have a spiritual affinity for LD which (not being a spiritual person) I can't understand but which I respect. For a Catholic it might seem like strip mining the Vatican (something, incidentally, I would applaud and invest in).
5.) The TIMEFRAME fro the Martu (probably like most indigenous peoples) is quite different from our own. I once had a conversation with a Vietnamese, in Hannoi, about the Vietnam war and how the Vietnamese people viewed the US. The response startled me a bit. Along the lines of "You Europeans don't understand us at all; we have been at war with the Chinese, more or less, for over a 1000 years. That unpleasantness with the French then the Americans was a mere hiccup in our history and we have moved on.." The Martu have lived in the Western Desert continuously for 40,000 years so the 2 or 3 years we see as snails pace, to them, is inconsequential. Frustrating (to westerners increasingly accustomed to the 20 second politician "sound bite", fast food, and any number of immediate gratifications)? Certainly. Malicious? No.
6.) The BUSINESS fundamentals of RWD are sound. It isn't rocket science and we all know the numbers; X00 KT PA x Y00 $per ton minus the operating costs strongly suggests a healthy profit for what is at presnet a small share registry. Furthermore, we all know there IS a market and most of us would predict that that market will grow, because:
7.) Food prices will increase over time (has it ever been otherwise?), the amount of arable land in the world is decreasing, hence the need and demand for fertilizer will continue to increase. It is possible, with everything going our way for a change, RWD is only 18-24 months off PRODUCTION as the first Australian Potash producer.
8.) Michael Ruane may not be perfect as a human being and I'll even accept, for arguments sake, that he hasn't communicated well or that his impetuosity led to the downfall of the LD negotiations last time (although I see no evidence of either). HOWEVER, he also has more skin in this particular game than anyone, and unless he is congenitally STUPID or completely INSANE (And I challenge even the harping RWD peanut gallery to prove either) and intends to work AGAINST the best interests of himself, his wife and family (bearing in mind many of his shares are held by his super fund) and his friends on the board of RWD, I am CERTAIN he will do everything in his power to ensure the success of the company.
9.) As I mentioned previously, RWD's SP may not have set the world on fire recently, but then again not many companies have. I set up a little index of my own just after the GFC containing shares of good bluestock chips (banks, miners, Telcos, insurers, Woolies that type of thing). This index in only marginally higher now then at its nadir just after the GFC. RWD has done much better than that.
RWD Price at posting:
98.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
