I've developed a habit of looking at historical HC threads and recently I've found this hidden gem from 2020 about the true nature of the AUS housing market. THIS POST HERE was from 2020 (before the short lived & temporary COVID house price surge).
I did notice some replies to this thread saying that interest rates won't increase "for the next decade or so" (look how things have changed in 2022, eh?)
I agree with the OP that when using a large sample size of data (i.e. 120 years since beginning of Federation) your analysis will be stronger than someone who uses a smaller sample (e.g. last 25 years of price data).
Whether you read the post today, or 5 years in the future (or even if you read it when it was first posted in 2020), it makes no difference because it's talking about repeating patterns since the beginning of AUS Federation).
(Actually the 2021 house price surge when covid isolation restrictions were removed was just a repeat of what happened in 1951 when govt war time controls were removed - as you'll see in the graph.
When you look over long time periods you see that sometimes there are very lax lending standards, Govt policies or chance events lead to a temporary or unsustained surge in prices but actually AUS housing does simply go sideways roughly half of the time. And as the graph shows, there are times when property is underwater for long periods (e.g. 20 years plus).
As the old saying goes in real estate - "buyer beware".
