true nta more closer to 16 cents per share

Hi All

Here is a quick recap of my previous posts:

Estimated NTA value as at 30 June 2008 is AUD 349 million (ann 28 July 08) AFTER the $104m w/o. Shares on issue as per 31 Dec 2007 Annual Report 491,760,856 (ann 28 Mar 08)

349/492 = 71 cents per share

If we assume the remaining EUR 209 million in CRE loans are all sold at 73% of par value (same as two other CRE loans as ann 29 May 08) then another AUD 94 m loss (EUR 56 m at AUD 1 = EUR 0.6)

(349 – 94) / 492 = 51 cents per share

If the receivers are called in than the assets will be sold at a discount. They revalued them and taken 15% off. I recon in a fire sale situation there will be at least another 15% off i.e. another EUR 104 million w/o ( = AUD173m)

(349 – 94 - 173) / 493 = 16.6 cents per share


ijudge - to answer your question, i was happy to hold as I saw this recovering sonner or later despite all the panic in the market. However, jiblet's answer is spot on - based on most recent annoucement I now seriously doubt the company will survive. Banks are not charities my friend, the smell blood and they go for the kill and there is a pack of them on REU's door.