I'm sick and tired of reading all the "fair value" b/s that comes from all the ZFX holders on this thread who have no AGM holdings and therefore no other motive than to try and talk it down. So thought I'd post our calculations of the true value of AGM. (Can't take all the credit for this, your work Keith).
8500tpa x $A29,500 x 0.8 concentrate % (commercial in confidence but informed about 10% better than comparable
= $200,600,000 pa
Less:
Tas Govt royalty of 5% of above
= $10,030,000
Production costs:
8,500,000 x $3lb x 2.2 = $56,100,000
Gross Operating Profit before tax & interest
= $134,470,000
Societe Generale loan
$73,000,000 (only $20m drawn down so far) x 10% = $7,300,000
Tax @ 30%
= ($134,470,000 - $7,300,000) x 0.3
= $38,151,000
Gross Operating Profit after tax & interest
= $89,019,000
Divide 807,100,000 shares and unlisted options
= $0.11
Using Meluas PE of 12 quoted previously
= $1.32
No account for Melba flats, Bison, Saxon, Bintje, Pontiac or the latest – Godkin. Have I missed any?!!
Where's the "blue sky" in the $1 offer price there please anyone?
$eeker
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