So the tariff is on the country - not the commodity per se.
A tariff is technically levied on the importer who brings goods into the country ... but it is assessed based on the goods being imported. So usually either: a "general tariff" ... so 25% tariff on any import say from China or a specific tariff ... a 100% tariff on lithium batteries imported from China . and leaving open the interpretation for any intermediary country ... like Mexico importing Chinese goods, assembling them and export to USA.
Now correct me if I'm wrong, but NWC produces a copper concentrate NOT copper. We sell this concentrate to a smelter and they produce copper. Those produces would compete with other domestically produced copper (whether by smelting or SX-EW producing a copper cathode).
Roughly speaking In 2023, USA consumed ~1.8MT of Cu (so says statista.com). 2023 Domestic mine production was ~1.1MT, so roughly 60% of the country's copper consumption (so say pubs.usgs.gov). Leaves about 40% to be supply by other sources (i.e. Imports and Recyciing mostly). Surprisingly, recycling is significant for U.S. copper supply and around 30% .... leaves about 10% for imports.
So roughly 10% of the 1.8 Million Metric Tonnes is imported .... round it to 200,000 Metric tonnes ... 200,000,000 Kgs of Cu and convert to lbs and we get about 440,000,000 lbs of Cu which at US$4/lb translates to US$1,760,000,000 ... at 25% tariff (say it was all imported from Canada) and that's a tariff of US$440M collected by USA Gov't
All kinds of numbers to play with and depending on source a Tesla Model Y may be arounf 100lbs of copper ... US$400 worth of copper and if all copper was imported then that price rises to $500. Cost of Model Y is around US$50K ... depends on losts of factors too ,,, but for illustration the price after tariff on copper goes up by $100 (everyone is just passing cost through) ... increases by 0.2% ... big deal.
It's not all that clear to me what Trump is actually trying to achieve with a "tariff on copper". If its just to generate Gov't income call it a tax as that's what it is. It's not as if domestic copper miners or even smelters need protection ... USA is short copper ... so its only a negotiating strategy for something else.
Don't see a tariff on copper as a "game changer" for NWC ... JIMHO.
NWC Price at posting:
1.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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