Politicians and promises, what could possibly go wrong??
Low gas prices (petrol) are what are hurting the shale oil industry. The price of crude needs to be $US70-90/bbl for the shale industry to start accelerating again. This is according to the industry itself, but it is not that simple. All the best places for shale oil have been used already, so the only places available for future production with new wells are in second grade locations where the water cut comes on earlier, with lower overall production from the well. So new shale (or tight oil, not to be confused with oil shale) needs higher prices to become competitive at all.
It was only a period of $90-110/bbl oil that made the shale oil possible in the first place as each well cost $8-9M to build and frac anyway, with the possibility of no oil from the well, so companies had to drill dozens of wells to make sure they covered the duds.
$US100/bbl oil will do wonders for the EV industry, and that is the sort of price needed to start up the shale oil businesses again. A few paltry incentives will do nothing. Trump will get told the numbers when in power anyway.
Here is the rub though, just because Trump is president, does not mean he can do that much internally, this comes from congress and the senate, and despite both being Republican controlled, in US politics people do not always follow the party line. Congressmen and women and senators follow/vote for what will get them re-elected, $4/gallon gas in the US will not get them re-elected.
Plus you have a simple fact that Obama signed the Paris accord with the Chinese, so I don't think he can undo that, or the US might face sanctions from the rest of the world. Likewise Trump's 45% tax on Chinese imports, the inflationary pressure of that would be massive, so he would be fighting his own party on that one.
I've claimed all along there is an important election coming in 12 days time, and an election in the US as well. Please everyone don't forget to vote in the companies election. IMO 'for' is best for all of us and how I'm voting, as it stabilises the company, and allows for a lot more green instead of red.
All IMO of course
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