There's a lot involved - South China Sea, East China Sea, One China Policy (Taiwan), THAAD deployment in South Korea, North Korean missile and nuclear tests, planned increase in US import tariffs and all the jingoistic rhetoric coming from the Trump camp.
If that wasn't complicated enough, there's the US Senate investigation into Trump and his surrogate's connection to Russia and what they might find (there's a reason Trump hasn't released his tax returns), which might affect the legitimacy of Trump's presidency.
I think TPP is pretty much dead in the US with or without Trump.
With all that said, I think Lynas is positioned well for any outcome.
The only concerns I have are how quickly can they substitute new customers to take the rare earths currently being imported by China should a conflict erupt between the US and China (I really hope that doesn't happen - especially now that Lynas has finally gotten it's act together - it adds complexity and unpredictability - even more unknown variables to steady growth).
However, if that were to happen, ROW demand would skyrocket and I don't think it would be difficult for Lynas to get new customers in the US and Europe.
I do think Lynas should make contingency plans for using a different shipping route from Malaysia to Japan - maybe east of the Philippines instead of through the South China Sea (even though it would increase shipping cost)?
Today there was a high ranking member of the US Senate on CNN and when asked how worried he was from 1 to 10 about all the rhetoric coming from the Trump camp and China concerning the South China Sea. He said that both sided are setting themselves up for it to be difficult to back down, so from 1 to 10, he said 8.
(20min delay)