I think the number to watch is deaths per 1M population because...

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    I think the number to watch is deaths per 1M population because the US is doing a lot of testing now I expect they will uncover a lot of previously undetected cases. Each country is doing different amount of testing but death is less variability in how it is measured hopefully.

    US now at 15 deaths per 1M population
    Italy at 285 deaths per 1M
    Australia at 1 death per 1M

    I expect by the end of the epidemic most countries will have more than 100 deaths per million pop

    Total deaths globally around 750000 if that is the average
    If we all end up like italy be closer to 5M deaths (if they reach 500)
    Global population will only increase by 50M this year as a result.

    None of this is good news....tragic loss of life. But at least it isnt 50M deaths like the 1918 flu - that would stop the world population growing for a year.
 
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