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LoadedDog

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02/04/20

20:15

Post #: 43849210
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Originally posted by szaba_the_hut: ↑

I think the number to watch is deaths per 1M population because the US is doing a lot of testing now I expect they will uncover a lot of previously undetected cases. Each country is doing different amount of testing but death is less variability in how it is measured hopefully.

US now at 15 deaths per 1M population
Italy at 285 deaths per 1M
Australia at 1 death per 1M

I expect by the end of the epidemic most countries will have more than 100 deaths per million pop

Total deaths globally around 750000 if that is the average
If we all end up like italy be closer to 5M deaths (if they reach 500)
Global population will only increase by 50M this year as a result.

None of this is good news....tragic loss of life. But at least it isnt 50M deaths like the 1918 flu - that would stop the world population growing for a year.

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I expect they will uncover a lot of previously undetected cases.

That can only happen if they are testing for antibodies. The relevance of that is that those who are antibody + ve can go back to work and start the world on the road to recovery.
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