I would be comparing Sweden to Norway & Australia, but the comparison period is ongoing.
Sweden 14,688 deaths, or 144 per 100,000
Norway 829 deaths, or 15 per 100,000
Australia 1,102 deaths, or 4.3 per 100,000
Sweden let rip & is vaccinating.
Norway went the path of lockdowns etc & is vaccinating.
Australia went the path of lockdowns etc & is vaccinating.
Each of the above countries has strong health systems, is well developed etc.
At this stage, Sweden's death rate is 9.6x that of Norway, and 33x that of Australia.
When comparing in 12 months time, I wouldn't be including unvaccinated deaths from this point on in the analysis of each country. The decision needing to be made was between providing enough time for vaccination to take place vs letting the virus rip. So, IMO the true measure going forward is what the virus does to the vaccinated populations in each country.
Extrapolating the current death rate of Sweden to Australia, we'd now be sitting on about 39,000 deaths.
Texas has roughly the same population as Australia. It had uncontrolled outbreaks and overwhelming of the health system. 60,000 deaths.
India effectively had uncontrolled outbreaks, with 80% of the population over 40 years of age in June/July showing anti-bodies from previous infections. The kicker is that an estimated 4,000,000 - 5,000,000 people died to get to that point, plus whatever health issues many continue to have.
On the whole to date, I'm happy we haven't gone down the Sweden path. But yes, we still need to see how each country's vaccinated population responds over the next 12 months and further. Looking at current death and hospitalisation rates for vaccinated people, that 33x higher death rate in Sweden will take some catching.
