Trump to announce Tariff's..., page-5

Probably more likely:

1. Trump imposes tariffs on materials like steel and aluminum and a few other targeting things – stuff he thinks are destroying US manufacturing/ taking jobs, etc. China only exports few percent’s of US steel demand so that won’t hurt them much. But other proposals like Intellectual Property theft fines will be much more painful. Imposing tariffs on Rare Earths with rising demand would be like imposing quotas into the US with an opposite Trump desired result. Unlike steel and aluminum, there is negligible US supply substitute outside China (Only Lynas).
2. China will retaliate and a trade war escalates.
3. Part of the trade war escalation involves China restricting exports of Rare Earths to the US on the grounds that they are cutting back on production due to pollution etc. They could justify this to the WTO. Their real motive would be hog the output for themselves and cut out the US.
4. Then the price of Rare Earths outside China will rocket short term and China’s manufactured products using Rare Earths soar with an enormous competitive advantage while US collapses. This is just the opposite to what Trump wants. (However, Lynas’ customers with secure supply and stable pricing will be sitting pretty. New customers will be queuing up for Lynas’ increased secure production at reasonable but stable prices - if not already)
5. An enormous mess!

I’m sure that other posters could come up with many other scenarios.

However, IMO all these tariff threats are just Trump’s so called “genius” deal making maneuvers. He’s already watering down “a global tariff with no exceptions” on steel (E.g. Australia, Canada, Mexico) while trying to attach strings. He probably thinks he knows what he’s doing wheeling and dealing – until it all back-fires.

…Hey another conversion – it’s an odd amount: must be a specific home in mind or MK doesn’t want to exceed 5% with their existing holdings (To avoid disclosure, like they’ve been keen to do in the past).