I think that's a strong argument that makes a lot of sense. You are right to highlight the unknowns too - the debate performances, choice of VP or China etc. An awful lot of things to play out.
My takeaway is Trump has a chance if he gets within 4 or 5% of Biden then scares the bejesus out of the swing state voters with a real or manufactured crisis a few weeks before the vote. Many of the big cities are gone but, as you point out, it doesn't matter.
One caveat I would point out is that a lot of older folk in battleground states voted for Trump. They've been hit hard in this pandemic. I think they expected that people other than themselves were going to get hammered during Trump.
