I think it's unlikely that there will be a conviction.
But I also think it's foolish to see the 45 votes as indicating the trial is all but over.
There's warfare in the Republican Party. Usually Trump gets away with every crime. He's fighting to make sure it happens again. His method is to destroy every Republican who wants justice doled out to him and the mob he sent to overthrow the US government and steal the election.
McConnell is keeping his cards closer to his chest. He wants Trump out of the Republican Party, we know that. But whereas Trump's attacks can be seen coming a mile away, McConnell's attacks tend to be seen only when you notice there's a rather large knife protruding from your back. Don't count McConnell out yet - he got the outcome he wanted in November, remember.
There's plenty of things that need to play out for Republicans. A vote for the Rand Paul motion keeps scrutiny away from those in two minds and allows discussions behind close doors to continue.
