On Lichtman's keys: Perhaps a useful lens to consider historically relevant factors, but the devil is in the detail:
For example, he seems to consider that the incumbent (Democrats) did not have a contested primary. Which is literally true, but seeing as Biden was unchallenged throughout the Primary process, and then pressured to step down despite repeatedly squawking he wasn't going away, that sure as hell seems like a contested nomination to me.
Short-term economic success, long term economic success: how long would you like your pieces of string? Unemployment inclining up (but that can mean increased workforce participants seeking work), inflation is high (but showing "signs" of easing).
In other words, the good Professor can make his so-called keys mean whatever he wants them to mean, so long as he can wriggle them around to prove his gut feeling - he seems to have decided Harris will win - the Keys will follow his gut feeling.
As for Polls, a few weeks ago there were polls claiming Biden's standing - trailing Trump but not by a lot - hadn't sunk much after his dribbling debate performance. That convinced me more than ever that 2024 polls were utter garbage. I expect they will remain so.
For the record, my crystal ball predicts a blowout - for Harris. about 340 electoral college votes to about 200.
After the result, everyone will be quoting Nikki Haley ( I paraphrase) : "The first party to ditch its octogenarian candidate will win". I could also quote myself from December 2023: "This election will not be between Biden and Trump: possibly neither."
Trump has proven more difficult to remove ... so far.
