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billybongo

27,332 Posts.

26/10/21

08:31

Post #: 57066437
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Originally posted by albatrosss ↑

If you say to me Billy that the rates of hospitalization is at 5% in Jan 2021.
Its 5% in march
Its 5% in june
Its 5% in September.
Whats that saying?
its that if you catch the virus , there is 5% chance you will end up in hospital.
Then its upto the hospital and your immune system to make it out alive.
The % of patients once hospitalised that end up in ICU have come down a little but not much ,still tracking around that 1 in 5 or 1 in 6.

And ICU fatalities are now 20% . They started at 25% but now are closer to 20%.

Putting all that above into practice.
You would need around 4 million positive cases to have 5000 fatalities.
That's the reality.
That's regardless of being in lockdown or not being in lockdown.

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4 million positive cases.

A case fatality rate of 0.5% is 20000 deaths.

Possible. Israel I believe are 0.6%
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