Interestingly, Obama articulated the same (inherent) risk to Tunisia as G.O. and Grub .... namely the potential for millions of Lebanese ... sorry Libyans to spill over the border of a country that could not by itself deal with such as situation. Importantly, Tunisia now has a development and support commitment from the US.
From a business perspective, the worst possible outcome un any country is a prolonged civil war ...... and we now see this scenario emerging in full scale in Yeman. Unrest in Bahrain and Syria is not going to end any time soon and the unintentianal tongue slip by the US President IMO referred to the role Iran is playing to stir up Shia discontent though activist elements of Lebanon's Hezbollah.
In the meantime, Israel is concerned that Obama is in essence just letting the current flow (which is a morally correct stance ... against which he will be assessed in centuries to come). Israel will also be concerned about a nexus between Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the armed activist elements of Hezbollah Hamas and Fatah. While the powder keg is not likely to blow in a instant dominoes are still falling.
IMO some countries like Yeman, and I guess Libya may remain fractured and in civil conflict along tribal lines. Whether or not Syria implodes is anyones guess but it will probably hold together as a nation IMHO. Eygpt and Tunisia will I believe remain cohegent countries with underlying rules of law. Most often it is better to be close where a fire starts than where the fire eventually blows to.
The current turmoil IMHO underscores the high level of importance that may soon be applied to O&G exploration in Tunisia.
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