Righto - i've been working on a 'plug and play' formula to work...

Righto - i've been working on a 'plug and play' formula to work out a cash eps for JMS. Here's my first draft - I welcome comments or critique:

Tshipi Cash Profit (“Tshipi) = ((0.37 x S) x ((100 x (P – C)) / E)) x (1-T)

Where:
S = Ore sold (in tonnes)
P = 37% Port Elizabeth Manganese Price per DMTU (in $US)
C = Cash costof production per DMTU (in $US)
E = Exchange rate: AUD/USD
T = Tax rate

Jupiter EPS = ((0.499 x “Tshipi”) + Ore Marketing Profit – Corporate Costs)/1960m shares

If you plug in the following:
S = 3.3m (last qtr figures suggests this is conservative)
P = $5.90 (obviously this fluctuates significantly)
C = $2.20 (as per guidance)
E = 0.74 (current rate)
T = 0.3 (ie 30% - not sure what it actually is but based on last years accounts this looks close enough)

I work on marketing profit of around $6m and corporate costs of $3m

Cash EPS = 10.9c

If you plug in $4 for "P" you still get cash EPS of 5.4c - very agreeable at the current price.

This formula doesn't take into account capex. Sustaining capex doesn't seem to be particularly high and capex targeted at efficiency gains would presumably benefit ongoing costs/efficiencies. On my rough calculations the mine could spend $50m+ per year on capex and only reduce the EPS for JMS by 1c

The tax effect in the formula might in fact be too high as the actual tax rate would only be applied to the accounting profit (which would presumably be lower due to depreciation/amortization being higher than ongoing capex?).

Anyway - hopefully this is useful to some