TSN- Spec Buy. Target 6-7cents, page-367

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TonyIndo

10,948 Posts.

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29/06/16

11:06

Post #: 18148878
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Originally posted by jonkey1995 ↑

My basic maths using the following assumptions:

CX Partners put in 22.13 m on 13/08/2103 ( I realise it was 2 tranches but did this for simplicity};
Assume transaction in AUD only (ignore foreign currency);
Internal rate of return 25% for CX, thereafter 80:20 split on additional;
My estimated IRR required is approximately $43,400,000 based on 3 years before 80:20 kicks in;
Market prices us at $42.29m

Therefore, IMO, the market is pricing total enterprise value as:

42.29m= 0.25X +{(0.75X - 43.4m) x 0.2}

If I remember my algebra correctly from school X (enterprise value) is roughly $127.43m. Therefore our current economic interest to August according to the market is 33.19%.

This is only rough rounded numbers. The market (via TSN) prices TSI at roughly $127.43m. I think it is worth more, but time will tell. It is in our interest, IMO, to move CX on quickly as 25% IRR per year adds up and may dilute the effect of the 80:20 split above the 25% IRR depending on growth rates.

This post is solely for some weird entertainment purpose.

Cheers

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Nice breakdown Jonkey. I too believe it's worth much much more. What price do you put on a world class technology that is able to bring in 11,000 ATMs in one hit with the possibility of an additional 9,000 WLA? That's where the true value lies.

Tony

TSN Price at posting: 2.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
10 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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