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29/06/16
11:06
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Originally posted by jonkey1995
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My basic maths using the following assumptions:
CX Partners put in 22.13 m on 13/08/2103 ( I realise it was 2 tranches but did this for simplicity};
Assume transaction in AUD only (ignore foreign currency);
Internal rate of return 25% for CX, thereafter 80:20 split on additional;
My estimated IRR required is approximately $43,400,000 based on 3 years before 80:20 kicks in;
Market prices us at $42.29m
Therefore, IMO, the market is pricing total enterprise value as:
42.29m= 0.25X +{(0.75X - 43.4m) x 0.2}
If I remember my algebra correctly from school X (enterprise value) is roughly $127.43m. Therefore our current economic interest to August according to the market is 33.19%.
This is only rough rounded numbers. The market (via TSN) prices TSI at roughly $127.43m. I think it is worth more, but time will tell. It is in our interest, IMO, to move CX on quickly as 25% IRR per year adds up and may dilute the effect of the 80:20 split above the 25% IRR depending on growth rates.
This post is solely for some weird entertainment purpose.
Cheers
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Nice breakdown Jonkey. I too believe it's worth much much more. What price do you put on a world class technology that is able to bring in 11,000 ATMs in one hit with the possibility of an additional 9,000 WLA? That's where the true value lies.
Tony