Hola Amigo, my what a mess... Trolls crawling out of the dung piles left in Donkeys wake be like flies, as far as the eye can see, with odd brother caught in the crossfire of exchanges.. "They shall grow not old".......Usually means only one thing and if I turn my nostrils Smells like news is due to 8tey.. At this point, pending MRE, FS, upcoming Drill plots each has to make his own assumption of what they have invested in and why? The why being future potential normally, unless you like throwing money away.. Then you balance that equation with the risk of not achieving it..
Now based on the last update from Mach8 (Thanks Brother) and overlaying that with the grid ref handed out in the presso (old indian burial trick) we can see Zeff is one obsessive compulsive straight as die drill Nazi... Lining them up tight as a drum and gun barrel straight like a North Korean Victory parade stepping one out to the Supreme Leader...
The scale of which you get to appreciate a ;little better with a drone looking straight down Coquetas ridge.. It's Freaking massive and will be a huge pit once fully drilled.. And you can just see the start of Punte de Diamonte at top left, with Gordo to the right... Drill hole 80 & 82 are on the same grid line and have to be nearly 400-500 metres apart, poss 600.. That's a big bite if both hit..
And that's what we are buying in to, future potential.. Some short medium & long term..
And as you can see in the graph above and datasheet below, we've not always reflected approx SP av trend value throughout our time since listing and at other times we have out run the trend hard.. personally I don't think we were overvalued at 52 and not by the amount of correction we have seen since.. Not with all the positive progress we have seen but hey, that's the market they say.. (Hmmmmph, they obviously don't have my spending habits!!!)
But the overall trend since listing is still up, even through the SP has been beaten like a red headed step son each trading hour, with the odd show of defiance hahaha (onya carrot! haha) So if we believe that this aint a never ending hiding to nowhere & that what lies ahead is beneficial overall and possibly value adding then we might have hope that we will start trending back towards the line when the wheel truns.
SOI Date Description SP Dev % Volume MC 1 362,000,000 17/02/2020 First Drill Hole Completed of Program, at El Zorro 0.028 0 2,883,958 $10,136,000 2 362,000,000 6/03/2020 Exceptional gold assays for first drill hole at El Zorro 0.037 0.009 24% 56,470,524 $13,394,000 3 362,000,000 12/03/2020 Additional assays extend gold zone at El Zorro 0.039 0.002 5% 76,700,357 $14,118,000 4 362,000,000 23/03/2020 Tesoro to accelerate to 70% 0.025 -0.014 -56% 6,462,742 $9,050,000 5 362,000,000 26/03/2020 Company Update 0.028 0.003 11% 1,951,129 $10,136,000 6 362,000,000 6/04/2020 Espina surface sampling confirms large scale gold potential 0.033 0.005 15% 6,891,791 $11,946,000 7 362,000,000 17/04/2020 Widespread surface gold mineralisation at El Zorro 0.066 0.033 50% 36,396,999 $23,892,000 8 362,000,000 22/04/2020 Additional channel sampling at El Zorro expands surface gold 0.068 0.002 3% 15,166,238 $24,616,000 9 362,000,000 27/04/2020 Wide high-grade gold intercept at El Zorro 0.059 -0.009 -15% 12,584,991 $21,358,000 10 362,000,000 6/05/2020 Further wide high-grade gold intercepts at El Zorro 0.053 -0.006 -11% 28,666,533 $19,186,000 11 362,000,000 13/05/2020 El Zorro's Coquetas gold system extended 75 0.046 -0.007 -15% 4,909,052 $16,652,000 12 362,000,000 27/05/2020 El Zorro drill results continue to expand mineralisation 0.071 0.025 35% 10,721,051 $25,702,000 13 362,000,000 29/05/2020 Termination of Espina Option Agreement 0.071 0 0% 1,444,171 $25,702,000 14 362,000,000 9/06/2020 Excellent metallurgical testwork results from El Zorro 0.084 0.013 15% 5,618,372 $30,408,000 15 362,000,000 10/06/2020 Drilling results continue to expand scale of El Zorro 0.076 -0.008 -11% 11,846,794 $27,512,000 16 362,000,000 12/06/2020 Capital raising for accelerated exploration program 0.069 -0.007 -10% 0 $24,978,000 17 476,000,000 25/06/2020 Extensive gold bearing vein system identified at Buzzard 0.07 0.001 1% 21,184,512 $33,320,000 18 476,000,000 3/07/2020 Infill and extensional drill program commences at El Zorro 0.076 0.006 8% 2,570,945 $36,176,000 19 476,000,000 31/07/2020 Tesoro increases El Zorro land position by 360% 0.14 0.064 46% 3,491,896 $66,640,000 20 476,000,000 4/08/2020 El Zorro exploration update 0.18 0.04 22% 15,115,360 $85,680,000 21 476,000,000 10/08/2020 El Zorro geophysical survey highlights gold mineralisation 0.215 0.035 16% 11,474,793 $102,340,000 22 476,000,000 26/08/2020 Drilling results demonstrate wide gold zones at El Zorro 0.17 -0.045 -26% 11,097,119 $80,920,000 23 476,000,000 4/09/2020 Intercept confirms large scale potential at El Zorro 0.175 0.005 3% 6,406,872 $83,300,000 24 476,000,000 17/09/2020 Wide interval of visible gold in drilling at El Zorro 0.24 0.065 27% 12,895,314 $114,240,000 25 476,000,000 9/10/2020 Wide gold zones defined at El Zorro 0.395 0.155 39% 7,195,952 $188,020,000 26 476,000,000 23/10/2020 Infill drilling continues to intercept gold bearing zones 0.4 0.005 1% 4,402,524 $190,400,000 27 476,000,000 4/11/2020 Wide high-grade gold intercept at El Zorro 0.37 -0.03 -8% 29,874,785 $176,120,000 28 476,000,000 17/11/2020 Drilling success continues at El Zorro 0.335 -0.035 -10% 8,418,027 $159,460,000 29 476,000,000 24/11/2020 El Zorro drilling returns multiple thick gold intercepts 0.305 -0.03 -10% 11,142,616 $145,180,000 30 476,000,000 1/12/2020 Geophysical survey identifies potential Ternera repeat 0.33 0.025 8% 7,984,818 $157,080,000 31 555,000,000 10/12/2020 Large surface gold target defined by trenching at Toro Gordo 0.28 -0.05 -18% 6,255,720 $155,400,000 32 555,000,000 16/12/2020 El Zorro drilling continues to expand Ternera 0.27 -0.01 -4% 2,696,992 $149,850,000 33 555,000,000 22/12/2020 300 g/m intercept confirms El Zorro large-scale potential 0.26 -0.01 -4% 5,662,844 $144,300,000 34 555,000,000 11/01/2021 Drilling continues to expand scale at El Zorro 0.265 0.005 2% 3,456,373 $147,075,000 35 555,000,000 27/01/2021 Drilling continues to extend Ternera deposit 0.265 0 0% 10,578,797 $147,075,000 36 555,000,000 12/02/2021 SP Close 0.22 -0.045 -20% 5,511,702 $122,100,000
Also note we have raised twice in that time and so the MC has absorbed new shares coming on market back in early June 2020 and again in Dec/Jan 20-21.. Value was added before with some really good results and you would be reasonable in thinking that is a possibility to happen again with plenty going on and a number of milestones coming up...
Not the least of which is the MRE... Now we've been pelted with rotten eggs by every troll who then whispered to the next that there were performance shares pending... Yes there is & there has been an element of dilution driven by the need to drill as well.. Now without either, you sit on a prospect and fester for years.. So maybe targeted drilling aint so bad, got to add a little value maybe..
So lets not hide from it shall we, lets have a look at the lot.. then peeps can make their own mind up.. And lets use the ATH share price as our datum, overvalued or not..??
476m SOI at 52 c was approx $247m MC and we hit that on 15 Oct last year... before getting schooled for a good 4 months now for our impudence..
Amount Date Reference Class % SOI Tot Amount SOI % Diff SP MC 1 2 476,000,000 15/10/2020 SP ATH 0.52 476,000,000 $0.52 $247,520,000 3 4 555,000,000 10/12/2020 CR 555,000,000 $0.45 $288,600,000 5 6 46,720,000 29/07/2021 250k oz @1g/t Class A 8.4% 49,850,468 604,850,468 9.0% $0.41 $314,522,244 7 3,130,468 29/07/2021 1/3 of 9,391,405 1/3 Class E 0.6% 8 20,030,000 17/01/2022 BFS DFS (Commecially viable) Class D 3.6% 20,030,000 624,880,468 3.6% $0.40 $324,937,844 9 55,000,000 29/01/2022 Escrowed 9.9% 75,030,000 699,910,468 13.5% $0.35 $363,953,444 10 50,060,000 29/01/2023 1m oz @1g/t Class B 9.0% 53,190,468 753,100,937 9.6% $0.33 $391,612,487 11 3,130,468 29/01/2023 1/3 of 9,391,406 1/3 Class E 0.6% 12 20,030,000 29/01/2025 2m oz @1g/t Class C 3.6% 23,160,468 776,261,405 4.2% $0.32 $403,655,931 13 3,130,468 29/01/2025 1/3 of 9,391,407 1/3 Class E 0.6% 14 221,261,405 15 16 139,982,094 29/01/2022 20% holding represented as shares on issue at 29/01/2022 Vendor 20% 139,982,094 839,892,562 $0.29 $436,744,132
Now to hit the same value with 555m SOI now after the raise the SP would only be .45c, or if you look at it the other way 555m x 52 would mean a market cap closer to $288m were we to achieve the dizzy heights again.
And that is what you need to look at.. If you accept that each performance milestone (and there's a few coming up) does nothing except dilute the register then yes the SP will find it hard to regain lost glory.. But if the achievement of the milestone drives inherent value through greater resources, formal estimates and feasibility studies, with a pathway to mine and NPV then it might be that the added shares bring with them added value and the equation balances. If you do nothing it is dilutionary, if you bring value it may well not be.
And on this point each individual weighs up what they see.. Through their eyes and with their acceptance of risk, or the probability the outcome doesn't happen.
Class A performance shares, followed by the DFS, then the escrowed shares from inception, then B, then C and along with them are the vesting shares..
And the end of all this the Chilean vendors are either going to want to be part of the story or not..
I don't know but if we assume 20% of the company will fall due should they agree to sell then we shouldn't leave ourselves short by too much so knock I've allocated another 20%..
So by 2025 fully diluted as per the vesting dates we would carry 840m shares not including any raises.. People can add those in as they see fit as I don't know how much or when but I suppose you could add 15% a year and build your buffer..
840m is circa 29c based of achieving our old ATH SP which is some ways down on 52 but if by then we've added some real value what's the chance of hitting an MC of $436'744'132.. Doesn't seem like too much of a stretch, not with some valuations getting around and by then you can assume a resource of 2m oz min and 100% ownership within TSO..
Lets use Zeffs latest figures which cut through that high grade zone and lets discount and dilute the total g/t to the historical average 0.475g/t 146m tonne of ore.. That's circa 2.4m oz by rough calcs using an average depth of 260m across all holes drilled to date (May be deeper with a variable grade upside)
L W D SG av g/t Gold 1 750 300 260 2.5 0.475 grams/kilos/ounces 2 3 58500000 146250000 69,468,750 gr 4 m3 t 5 69,469 kl 6 7 2,422,375 oz
Zeff has 3 options available & staggered over the next couple years but the are all due and depending on what price you wan to attribute for IG value it may be the bare minimum $45 ***** dollar amount or the sum of peer averages at 100-150 dollars an ounce.. Heaven forbid we should ever use DEG's figure of course.. Impudent wretch... hahahahaha
oz oz oz 1 2,422,375 1,000,000 500,000 2 3 $109,006,889 $45,000,000 $22,500,000 4 $242,237,531 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 5 $363,356,297 $150,000,000 $75,000,000
Now none of this above takes in to account drilling outside of a 750 x 300 plot so whether you believe there is value there to be found in the next 2-3 years is up to you.. I'm merely putting forward a scenario by which peeps can plug in what they like to see an answer.. But yes, there will be shares issued for performance, payment, prior payment, capital you name it.. That's how it works.. The question is does the equation balance? Do the shares being vested on one side equal the value being attributed on the other.. Or better does the value in crease by a percentage margin over the cost of the shares issued?
it's not hard to find single resource class gold stocks with a billion plus SOI and with market capitals of the same order.. So what's to say this ain't another one in the making..
So yeah, I'm all for tossing trolls.. But if you really want to snuff the life out of them have a series of facts handy and just swamp them every time.. They'll choke to death on their own bile sooner or later.. And yeah, punch your own figures in or add risk factors, weightings or whatever to suit and see get and ask is it achievable, I think so...
Guess we'll see, won't we.... Adios Amigos Hasta Luego.. GLTAH.. 8tey
