Hey Karma, although I do like those numbers, they do seem to be on the higher side of what the evidence suggests so far. I've drawn your smallest case scenario(700x200x200) as a cube over the majority of the holes that have been drilled so far to illustrate. Holes 1-32 have drilled through 7267m of rock within this cube. Lets assume 7000m as there are some bits sticking out. Out of that 7000m drilled, approx. 1040m has been mineralised.
Now lets look at grade of mineralisation. If I multiply grade and interval of each significant intercept and add it up we get approx. 2000 g/t .m. Now divide this by the mineralised length(1040m) and we have an average grade across our intercepts of 1.92 g/t.
If every drill hit 100% mineralisation within the extent of this cube, It would be reasonable to assume a grade of 1.92 g/t for the whole area which would give a resource size of 3,700,143 oz. Following this logic, if every drill hit 50% mineralisation it would be reasonable to average down the grade accross this area to 1g/t halving 3.7Moz to 1.85 Moz. Now this isn't entirely accurate as drill distribution plays a large role in this calculation however it gives a bit of a sense check to see whether you are in the ballpark. I'd say 20-30% would be a more representative 'dilution' of grade across this area giving a grade range between 0.38-0.58 g/t and corresponding resource size of 740,000 oz and 1.11MOz using this method.
Holes 42 and 44 will obviously be a game changer aswell as the holes at depth targeting the deeper anomalies identified if they return mineralised.
Based on all info so far I think we're looking at 1-2 Moz strictly at Ternera and the controlling CC faults. I do think there is also far more value in the surrounding terrain than what the market is recognising.
TSO Price at posting:
20.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
