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TSO fair value? Short term target 30c, medium term 60c!, page-358

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LJohn

1,292 Posts.

1314

15/01/21

05:08

Post #: 50182325

Originally posted by Hateful8: ↑
Hola Amigo's, and actually while we are here in the old TSO fair value thread why don't we have a look?

And while we are looking lets look at what 62 & 67-68 may bring to the table which might be soon as they seem to have been held up somewhat..

ZDDH00062 7036333 341803 624 -60 240 300
1 ZDDH00067 7036389 341781 647 -60 240 306.8
2 ZDDH00068 7036371 341744 627 -60 240 323
3

4 ZDDH00065 7036542 341918 636 -60 60 269.3
5 ZDDH00072 7035932 341845 595 -60 60 450.7

On Mach8's drill plot they appear to be holes pending with orientation shown.. Now 62, 67 & 68 which when you realise hole 44 didn't hit mineralisation till 104 metres (Thereby possibly defining the boundary limit of the fault structure linking drone hill to Ternera) means that with all being 300-323m in length will hopefully cut straight in to that drone hill arterial.. We all know the one by now..

Hole_ID Zones Start Depth From (m) To (m) Interval Au (g/t) Comments Av gr/m Total Av gr/m
1 ZDDH0044 1 104 104 107 3 0.92 xx 2.76 2.76
2 ZDDH0044

104 105 1 2.25 inc

That lot plus 65 & 72 (which I am keen on seeing) will probably do me... I mean that should give us a sizeable area to pin down for MRE

80+ holes drilled and at an average 300m per hole 30'000m buys us circa 100 holes.. and that should pin down the area in salmon here nicely under JORC for MRE at even spacing and give us a sniff around other areas perhaps?

But the main game between now and July will be proving up (via drill spacing infill) an economical MRE that we can apply feasibility values to and hopefully start to turn resources in to reserves.

So the question becomes how much gold may be residing in a set area (750 x 600 x 260 av depth hole 0-75) as a potential resource..

And that all comes down to what gold is in the ground, and assumptions around how this is reported
Hole_ID Zones Start Depth From (m) To (m) Interval Au (g/t) Comments Av gr/m Total Av gr/m
1 ZDDH0010 4 31 31 33 2 2.47 XX 4.94 116.73
2 ZDDH0010 4 60 60 61 1 1.16 XX 1.16
3 ZDDH0010 4 66 66 67 1 1.04 XX 1.04
4 ZDDH0010 4 75 75 159.3 84.3 1.3 XX 109.59
5 ZDDH0010

75 104 29 2.95 inc

6 ZDDH0010

82.5 86.45 3.95 4.97 inc

7 ZDDH0010

91 102 11 4.7 inc

8 ZDDH0010

93 97 4 8.5 inc

9 ZDDH0010

120 126 6 1.11 inc

10 ZDDH0010

149 159 10 1.07 inc

Note hole 10 reported 4 separate zones of mineralisation with the 4th zone between 75 & 159m recording 6 sub zones for an av 1.3 g/t over 84.3m while the total strike interval was 88.3m out of a total depth of 177.7
Hole_ID Zones Start Depth From (m) To (m) Interval Au (g/t) Comments Av gr/m Tot Interval Tot Av g/t Total Av gr/m RL (Variation 136M) Depth
1 ZDDH10 4 31 31 33 2 2.47 XX 4.94 88.30 1.32 116.73 628 177.7
2 ZDDH10 4 60 60 61 1 1.16 XX 1.16

3 ZDDH10 4 66 66 67 1 1.04 XX 1.04

4 ZDDH10 4 75 75 159.3 84.3 1.3 XX 109.59

So what about the other 89.4m that isn't recorded as a reportable figure? And by reportable I mean at an applied economic cutoff greater than .2 g/t.

Initially you may think it is just barren rock, but this isn't the case.. Because as you can see from one of the early downhole log files every single meter up to 176 hit some form of gold. Sure it didn't classify as reportable but it is there and it leaches out with all the other gold both high & low grade and that's what makes bulk tonnage mining so profitable... It is literally mineralised from surface to finish at some value and over vast tonnages that soon adds up.. Refer TSO Prospectus for all downhole data.
Hole ID From (m) To (m) Interval AU (g/t)
1 ZDDH0010 0 1.5 1.5 0.005
2 ZDDH0010 1.5 3 1.5 0.01
3 ZDDH0010 3 4 1 0.005
4 ZDDH0010 4 5 1 0.01
5 ZDDH0010 5 5.5 0.5 0.005
6 ZDDH0010 5.5 6 0.5 0.005
7 ZDDH0010 6 7 1 0.005
8 ZDDH0010 7 7.8 0.8 0.005
9 ZDDH0010 7.8 8.55 0.75 0.08
10 ZDDH0010 8.55 9 0.45 0.12
11 ZDDH0010 9 10 1 0.02
12 ZDDH0010 10 10.95 0.95 0.04
13 ZDDH0010 10.95 11.65 0.7 0.02
14 ZDDH0010 11.65 12.5 0.85 0.005
15 ZDDH0010 12.5 13.5 1 0.005
16 ZDDH0010 13.5 14 0.5 0.02
17 ZDDH0010 14 14.8 0.8 0.005
18 ZDDH0010 14.8 15.3 0.5 0.02
19 ZDDH0010 15.3 16 0.7 0.005
20 ZDDH0010 16 17 1 0.02
21 ZDDH0010 17 18 1 0.1
22 ZDDH0010 18 19 1 0.03
23 ZDDH0010 19 20 1 0.02
24 ZDDH0010 20 21 1 0.02
25 ZDDH0010 21 22 1 0.01
26 ZDDH0010 22 23 1 0.01
27 ZDDH0010 23 24 1 0.005
28 ZDDH0010 24 25 1 0.005
29 ZDDH0010 25 26 1 0.24
30 ZDDH0010 26 27 1 0.03
31 ZDDH0010 27 28 1 0.14
32 ZDDH0010 28 29 1 0.05
33 ZDDH0010 29 30 1 0.14
34 ZDDH0010 30 31 1 0.23
35 ZDDH0010 31 32 1 2.67
36 ZDDH0010 32 33 1 2.28
37 ZDDH0010 33 34 1 0.03
38 ZDDH0010 34 35 1 0.07
39 ZDDH0010 35 36 1 0.06
40 ZDDH0010 36 37 1 0.06
41 ZDDH0010 37 37.8 0.8 0.02
42 ZDDH0010 37.8 38.36 0.56 0.01
43 ZDDH0010 38.36 39 0.64 0.01
44 ZDDH0010 39 40 1 0.005
45 ZDDH0010 40 40.6 0.6 0.005
46 ZDDH0010 40.6 41.12 0.52 0.005
47 ZDDH0010 41.12 41.5 0.38 0.005
48 ZDDH0010 41.5 42 0.5 0.005
49 ZDDH0010 42 43 1 0.02
50 ZDDH0010 43 44 1 0.005
51 ZDDH0010 44 45 1 0.02
52 ZDDH0010 45 46 1 0.02
53 ZDDH0010 46 47 1 0.05
54 ZDDH0010 47 48 1 0.04
55 ZDDH0010 48 49 1 0.005
56 ZDDH0010 49 50 1 0.005
57 ZDDH0010 50 51 1 0.02
58 ZDDH0010 51 52 1 0.18
59 ZDDH0010 52 52.9 0.9 0.02
60 ZDDH0010 52.9 53.5 0.6 0.03
61 ZDDH0010 53.5 54.2 0.7 0.005
62 ZDDH0010 54.2 55 0.8 0.15
63 ZDDH0010 55 56 1 0.19
64 ZDDH0010 56 57 1 0.05
65 ZDDH0010 57 58 1 0.21
66 ZDDH0010 58 59 1 0.08
67 ZDDH0010 59 60 1 0.1
68 ZDDH0010 60 61 1 1.16
69 ZDDH0010 61 62 1 0.1
70 ZDDH0010 62 63 1 0.02
71 ZDDH0010 63 64 1 0.18
72 ZDDH0010 64 65 1 0.02
73 ZDDH0010 65 66 1 0.005
74 ZDDH0010 66 67 1 1.04
75 ZDDH0010 67 67.7 0.7 0.05
76 ZDDH0010 67.7 68.7 1 0.03
77 ZDDH0010 68.7 69.5 0.8 0.02
78 ZDDH0010 69.5 70 0.5 0.05
79 ZDDH0010 70 71 1 0.02
80 ZDDH0010 71 72 1 0.03
81 ZDDH0010 72 73 1 0.01
82 ZDDH0010 73 74 1 0.01
83 ZDDH0010 74 75 1 0.02
84 ZDDH0010 75 75.55 0.55 0.46
85 ZDDH0010 75.55 76.25 0.7 7.9
86 ZDDH0010 76.25 77 0.75 0.41
87 ZDDH0010 77 78 1 0.16
88 ZDDH0010 78 79 1 1.47
89 ZDDH0010 79 80 1 0.71
90 ZDDH0010 80 81 1 0.85
91 ZDDH0010 81 82 1 0.03
92 ZDDH0010 82 82.5 0.5 0.5
93 ZDDH0010 82.5 83.45 0.95 8.3
94 ZDDH0010 83.45 84 0.55 0.45
95 ZDDH0010 84 85 1 0.01
96 ZDDH0010 85 85.75 0.75 0.92
97 ZDDH0010 85.75 86.45 0.7 15.4
98 ZDDH0010 86.45 87 0.55 0.43
99 ZDDH0010 87 88 1 0.34
100 ZDDH0010 88 88.64 0.64 2.41
101 ZDDH0010 88.64 89.4 0.76 0.17
102 ZDDH0010 89.4 90 0.6 0.07
103 ZDDH0010 90 91 1 0.4
104 ZDDH0010 91 92 1 3.34
105 ZDDH0010 92 93 1 3.01
106 ZDDH0010 93 94 1 10.2
107 ZDDH0010 94 94.5 0.5 1.8
108 ZDDH0010 94.5 95.5 1 4.59
109 ZDDH0010 95.5 96 0.5 5.6
110 ZDDH0010 96 97 1 15.5
111 ZDDH0010 97 98 1 0.1
112 ZDDH0010 98 99 1 3.66
113 ZDDH0010 99 100 1 3.37
114 ZDDH0010 100 101 1 2.25
115 ZDDH0010 101 102 1 1.95
116 ZDDH0010 102 103 1 1.23
117 ZDDH0010 103 104 1 0.71
118 ZDDH0010 104 105 1 0.23
119 ZDDH0010 105 106 1 0.18
120 ZDDH0010 106 107 1 0.04
121 ZDDH0010 107 108 1 0.02
122 ZDDH0010 108 109 1 0.94
123 ZDDH0010 109 110 1 0.03
124 ZDDH0010 110 111 1 0.01
125 ZDDH0010 111 112 1 0.2
126 ZDDH0010 112 113 1 0.005
127 ZDDH0010 113 114 1 0.005
128 ZDDH0010 114 115 1 0.005
129 ZDDH0010 115 116 1 0.005
130 ZDDH0010 116 117 1 0.005
131 ZDDH0010 117 118 1 0.005
132 ZDDH0010 118 119 1 0.005
133 ZDDH0010 119 120 1 0.005
134 ZDDH0010 120 121 1 1.25
135 ZDDH0010 121 122 1 1.1
136 ZDDH0010 122 123 1 2.63
137 ZDDH0010 123 123.55 0.55 0.46
138 ZDDH0010 123.55 124.5 0.95 0.19
139 ZDDH0010 124.5 125 0.5 0.45
140 ZDDH0010 125 126 1 1.04
141 ZDDH0010 126 127 1 0.39
142 ZDDH0010 127 128 1 0.36
143 ZDDH0010 128 129 1 0.58
144 ZDDH0010 129 129.74 0.74 0.42
145 ZDDH0010 129.74 130.5 0.76 0.46
146 ZDDH0010 130.5 131 0.5 0.21
147 ZDDH0010 131 132 1 0.94
148 ZDDH0010 132 133 1 0.32
149 ZDDH0010 133 134 1 0.09
150 ZDDH0010 134 134.95 0.95 0.32
151 ZDDH0010 134.95 135.6 0.65 0.24
152 ZDDH0010 135.6 136.5 0.9 0.01
153 ZDDH0010 136.5 137 0.5 0.005
154 ZDDH0010 137 138 1 0.12
155 ZDDH0010 138 139 1 0.05
156 ZDDH0010 139 140 1 0.005
157 ZDDH0010 140 141 1 0.66
158 ZDDH0010 141 142 1 0.005
159 ZDDH0010 142 143 1 0.05
160 ZDDH0010 143 144 1 0.02
161 ZDDH0010 144 145 1 0.005
162 ZDDH0010 145 146 1 0.005
163 ZDDH0010 146 147 1 0.005
164 ZDDH0010 147 148 1 0.005
165 ZDDH0010 148 149 1 0.01
166 ZDDH0010 149 150 1 1.26
167 ZDDH0010 150 150.6 0.6 6.3
168 ZDDH0010 150.6 151.6 1 0.57
169 ZDDH0010 151.6 152.3 0.7 0.26
170 ZDDH0010 152.3 152.85 0.55 0.03
171 ZDDH0010 152.85 153.85 1 2.11
172 ZDDH0010 153.85 154.6 0.75 0.04
173 ZDDH0010 154.6 155.5 0.9 0.01
174 ZDDH0010 155.5 156.5 1 0.05
175 ZDDH0010 156.5 157.5 1 0.18
176 ZDDH0010 157.5 158.5 1 1.97
177 ZDDH0010 158.5 159.3 0.8 1.03
178 ZDDH0010 159.3 160 0.7 0.02
179 ZDDH0010 160 161 1 0.005
180 ZDDH0010 161 162 1 0.005
181 ZDDH0010 162 163 1 0.03
182 ZDDH0010 163 164 1 0.02
183 ZDDH0010 164 165 1 0.01
184 ZDDH0010 165 166 1 0.005
185 ZDDH0010 166 167 1 0.07
186 ZDDH0010 167 168 1 0.005
187 ZDDH0010 168 169 1 0.005
188 ZDDH0010 169 170 1 0.005
189 ZDDH0010 170 171 1 0.005
190 ZDDH0010 171 172 1 0.005
191 ZDDH0010 172 173 1 0.02
192 ZDDH0010 173 174 1 0.005
193 ZDDH0010 174 175 1 0.12
194 ZDDH0010 175 176 1 0.005

In fact of the first 16 holes on which we have full log data out of 3026 odd metres only 17-18 or so didn't report anything.. Roughly a 94-95% hit ratio and all started from surface as shown..

Hole ID From (m) To (m) Interval AU (g/t)
1 ZDDH0001 0 1 1 0.08
2 ZDDH0002 0 1 1 0.01
3 ZDDH0003 0 4 4 0.32
4 ZDDH0004 0 3 3 0.14
5 ZDDH0005 0 1 1 0.02
6 ZDDH0007 0 1 1 0.03
7 ZDDH0008 0 1 1 0.17
8 ZDDH0009 0 1 1 0.04
9 ZDDH0010 0 1.5 1.5 0.005
10 ZDDH0011 0 1 1 0.02
11 ZDDH0012 0 1 1 0.11
12 ZDDH0013 0 1 1 0.6
13 ZDDH0014 0 1.5 1.5 0.15
14 ZDDH0015 0 11.9 11.9 0
15 ZDDH0016 0 5.3 5.3 0

Across 3000+ metres and 16 holes the average value was .475 g/t..

So what does this mean, basically it means that everything within a defined mineralised area of say 750 x 600 x 260av contains gold.. We don't sort it or separate it we just dig it up crush it and process it all together. At which point 99% of which is recoverable.. And it is extremely economical to do so..

Plus once you know the av value of each meter it becomes far simpler to calculate the potential resource contained within the area in pink (surface mineralisation)

Length
Width
Av Depth
SG
g/t

750 x 600 x 260 x 2.5 x 0.475

292,500,000 Tonnes 138,937,500 Grams

138937.5 Kilos divide grams by 1000

4,844,751 Ounces multiply kilos by 34.87

The above figure is based off the results achieved over 3000m and 16 holes continuing over the whole resource area without major deviation occurring which we have not seen so far other than to return higher grade results in the southern extension area..

And at a potential 4moz+ you'd have to think Pac Partners estimate of 19c based on 1 million oz would mean there is a bit of room left for SP appreciation to occur should the figures stack up.. In my opinion of course... Though I do feel we may be re-rating off the basis of something, could be the resource potential & the $24m cash at bank to realise it over the next 6 & then 12m.... What do you reckon? 8tey

And just for the record the average g/t figure across all holes at present from ZDDH01 to ZDDH75 is 1.73g/t So we are just waiting on Zeff to give us a number...
Expand
Great post again Hatey.

Also worth noting that it is not necessarily right to apply 19c for each 1moz we find above 1moz, given that the 19c from PAC Partners will have capex etc included. So more likely for each 1moz we drill up you should be able to apply a SP increase of much more than 19cents, and may well be double that number (depending on grades, location etc - my lucky number is $1 by end of 2021

Obviously as well, not many sub-1moz mines end up getting mined, so finding more gold means the likelier this will be mined, and therefore the increased value we will see. Not that I think there is much doubt that this will be mined one day!

TSO Price at posting: 31.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

2 Great analysis

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