Looks like we had a mini break out to $2.30 as suggested the...

Looks like we had a mini break out to $2.30 as suggested the other day.

Here is my take on the chart, and I must say I believe the next move largely depends on fundamentals + broader marker condition.

SP was recently in that red triangular zone. The other day, it had a mini break out from $2.13 and ran to $2.30 (15% from the latest low).
Typically when we get this triangular pattern, the target will be the previous high (SP at the start of the triangle). See those yellow circles; and that is what happened the other day.

So this to me was just a technical move.

On the other hand, and at a larger time scale, we have those blue lines forming another triangle.
The lower blue line is the long term support.
The upper blue line is the long term resistance (since the all time high).

In order to get a decent break out, SP needs to get past the upper blue line (failed twice previously; see pink circles). That would attract traders.

IMO (and in a rational market), a fundamental change (here a contract) would take us past that resistance. If happens we probably begin a major up move towards $4-5 mark (or higher depending on the contract).

On the other hand, we have the month of May ahead of us. If no news (and bad market), there is a chance that we may break below the long term support; and that can make things ugly in short term.

Of course, all that depends on the psychology of TTT holders and traders, their optimism and patience for contracts (TTT holders are among the best in that regards), institutional support, and broader market condition.

So yeah, at the moment SP is trying to float around with some technical movements waiting for a fundamental change (a contract for the up move) or deteriorated patience (for down move).

I continue to remain highly positive on TTT as a long term hold.

Good luck all TTT holders.