tty share price 4cast june 2011 - $1.30-1.40!!

Hey Guys

There have been some questions about TTY's recent share price rally, whether it has peaked and is headed down.

Best way to work out an expected share price in 12 months based on known facts:

Latest Quarterly Report shows the following:

$24.5m EBITDA for Period April 1st to June 30 2010 (Q2)
Lets assume a lower Iron Ore price going forward on the Spot Market(even though it has risen to $133)

Assuming that the Spot Price of Iron ORe falls to $100 per tonne ave for the next 3 quarters.

EBITDA would then fall to $18-20Million per quarter

Result 2011 FY EBIT DA of approx ($18m-$20mx4) [Covering Period From July 1st 2010 to June 30 2011] =
$72-80milion EBITDA.

Lets not forget most miners report in quarterly reports their profit as Gross Profit, before Interest and Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation. So this figure produced by TTY is an excellent result.

$72,000,000 EBITDA / 264,600,000 shares outstanding =
Conservative EPS of $0.2721c

Being a Small Cap Miner, their Share Price Multiple would be around 5 times EPS. Mid Caps sit around 7-8 and ASX200 around 12, with the ASX50 15-18 times.

5 x $0.2721c = Share Price $1.36!!! Currently 28c! Still has plenty of Gas in the Tank for a climb!!!

Again, we should mention a Thank You to all the Staff @ TTY for the contribution and efforts to bring the company into an excellent position for growth over the next 7-8 years!