wa-a-a-a-a-a-l, its true that support held today... thats not a bearish trait ... but it didn't bounce very far... spx futs still down on the sessions open tho improved a little since xjo opened... so, whats the ducks guts? I reckon that the thing missing is something that will scare the bejeezus out of longs and persuade them to sell... but theres nothing so far, its all priced in.... no trigger for downside .. this recent stage of the rally has been characterised by lack of sellers more than by eager beaver buyers ... so, looking ahead, whats a likely trigger (aside from a surprise) for sellers to emerge.. its probably data due on Friday night our time.. weekly employment data in the usa for one, but I think usa cpi might be due out then as well.. so I reckon it will be a faffabout market until then.. tho fundamentally imo this is about as high as the rally should go, but since thats got nothing to do with what the market will do, it may be that the market continues for another 10% or so... there's another resistance point around there somewhere.. before making some decision about how things look in 6 -12 months time.. summary: potential downside a la 1932 of astronomical proportions... or japan, only 85% further down or so.. or some sort of V shaped rally a la 1987 .. I've settled for the taking profits (reducing losses in my case) at current levels... and i'll wait on a decent pullback, if this isn't the one, some time down the track to get in big again.. but this could still be the one. cheers!
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