Wowsers, so here we are back to exactly where we were at the start of Tuesdays session, at circa 6045.
So my underlying fundamental analysis was correct.. market's were totally mad, and the reality is that the JK and JS extensions had been well telegraphed, and the 2.0 version will actually still be a pretty stiff cliff come October.
This is not about me being "right"..
This whole episode has made me think a bit...
Trying to reflect on the actual fundamentals: things like data, and whats actually happening, and whats actually going to happen in the real economy, is perhaps kinda not the game..
Instead, I should be trying to reflect on how the great masses will interpret the news, and interpret the situation, and what they think.
So JK extension and EU stimulus news come out. All well telegraphed, and not super helpful. Stupid markets go great! Lets pile on 3%!!!
Then 24 hours later, nothing has really changed, (except the market has actually read the releases), and we give up all of the gains, and are back to where we started.
So the key is to interpret how the general masses will interpret things, not to actually worry about the underlying fundamental of whatever issue is at hand, right!? This may actually be kinda a DCT thing??? God help me..
Markets getting so close back to ATH's is another good example.. The fact that the economy is empirically totally in the toilet, and will be for years seemingly appears a bit irrelevant.
What matters is that the great masses believe that everything will be okay, because they believe that respective governments will do whatever it takes, and have the power (very very questionable proposition) to fix things.
(20min delay)