tuesday after double pomo, page-38

The below analysis is by Parker using some T Theory -

Link - http://position-sizing.blogspot.com/2010/11/75-day-cycle.html

75 day cycle

"During the uptrend that started in March 2009, we have seen a selling climax every 75 trading days as defined by the T Theory Volume Oscillator. Each of the dates listed below is the end of the selling climax. In each case, the climax took several trading days to complete. In all but one case, the final low came several days after the selling climax:

March 2, 2009
TTVO = -168
Climax length: 3 trading days
Loss during climax on closing basis: 65 S&P points
Final low: 4 trading days after climax

June 17, 2009 (75 days later)
TTVO = -126
Climax length: 3 trading days
Loss: 35 points
Final low: 14 trading days after climax

October 2, 2009 (75 days later)
TTVO = -156
Climax length: 4 trading days
Loss: 37 points
Final low: October 2, 2009

January 22, 2010 (76 days later)
TTVO = -131
Climax length: 3 trading days
Loss: 60 points
Final low: 10 trading days after climax

May 7, 2010 (73 days later)
TTVO = -284
Climax length: 4 trading days
Loss: 90 points
Final low: 12 trading days later

August 24, 2010 (75 trading days later)
TTVO = -95
Climax length: 4 trading days
Loss: 45 points
Final low: 3 trading days later

If this cycle were to continue, the selling climax would commence on December 6 and end on December 9, 2010 (75 days after August 24). The final low would not occur until the week of December 13 or December 20.

As a reminder, the January Barometer (see Stock Traders Almanac) says that there is a 91.5% chance we finish 2010 either flat (+/- 5%) or down compared to 2009, which closed at 1115.10. This is because January 2010 closed well below 1115.10. So, any yearly close under 1170.85 (1115.1 x 1.05) will satisfy the January Barometer.

Should we get a selling climax the week of December 6 with a final low within 2 weeks after the climax, the January Barometer should easily be satisfied."