gann45 and whyme2,Not sure if you follow Terry Laundry, however...

gann45 and whyme2,

Not sure if you follow Terry Laundry, however he's been talking for some time about a roughly 40 year cycle that's dominating all the shorter term cycles at the moment.

I'm not sure if I'm convinced about his 40 year cycle, dates and conclusions at this point. However, we maybe in the downturn of a slightly shorter 30 year cycle if we consider that we are quite possibly correcting for the period back to 1985. ie. 800 base in 1985, top at 6400 (IMO the true top) - so if we hit 3600ish low then thats 50% retrace.

Interesting that he proposes a 50% rally back to the August top (approx SPX 1170) which will fail when his blue oscillator indicator becomes overbought and a genuine rally will not begin until late-November.

Link: http://www.ttheory.com/

pjsimon: I'd suggest that most on this thread (including me) are expecting a low for this calendar year of in the range 3400-3940 followed by a lengthy sustained rally. In terms of market levels on a given date, I'd suggest you'd be better to consult with Voltaire and many others who are better at dates than me. My personal expectation is we should still be in an initial 2-3 month rally off the lows and the Dow should be somewhere around 9,500-11,000 at the end of December. However, if someone like Terry Laundry turns out to be correct then we would probably be at lower levels. Still, that would be nowhere near 5,000.
These are just my opinions - do your own research.