Good way to analysis things with your thumb barrow lol
Heres the rest it below. Have a look at the last chart. Insto buying and selling! VERY INTERESTING.
Good luck..
"Tuesday, August 14th.
1. New lows are at a historic high were previous bottoms occurred. As you will see in chart 2, New Lows are remaining, and lingering at this high level. When will it have its drop? For the answer, I looked at historic Volatility (VIX) levels and looked for a correlation. It turns out, that on peak VIX moves, the VIX had to drop for the New Lows to start its dropping process. So, have Volatility levels peaked, or are they still in process of rising? See charts 3, 4, and 5 for the answer. This is a must see analysis. (Think about the logic here ... New Lows happen because investors are afraid of stocks moving lower so they sell. It isn't until they stop being afraid that they stop their selling, so if the VIX is showing continued or increasing fear levels, then the fear is still in place to keep the New Lows at a high level.)
2. The Shanghai is still moving up, and has moved up 14% since we made our projection. This morning it closed at 4872.79 which now puts it 5.91% away from the 20% prediction of 5150. What is interesting, is that it should hit that target by the end of this month ... right when U.S. regulators are requiring disclosure of sub-prime losses on funds. If the two clash together at the end of August, that could put a lot of renewed selling pressure on the market at that time.
3. The Super Accelerator on the SPY is now Down/Neutral. The New Lows should be close to ending its peak rise. New Low peaks are associated with bottoms being put in on the market.
4. Be sure to also see the charts for the long term bond yield, the U.S. Dollar, and Shanghai Index that we post every day at the very bottom of daily update page. _______________________________________________________________
Chart A1: The NYA New Highs ...
New lows are at a historic high were previous bottoms occurred. As you will see in chart 2, New Lows are remaining, and lingering at this high level. When will it have its drop? For the answer, I looked at historic Volatility (VIX) levels and looked for a correlation. It turns out, that on peak VIX moves, the VIX had to drop for the New Lows to start its dropping process. So, have Volatility levels peaked, or are they still in process of rising? See charts 3, 4, and 5 for the answer.
Today's Reading: The NYA New Highs closed at 100. The New LOWS are still slightly higher than the worse case in 2002. There were 8 prior New Low Peak levels since 2002 and each marked the bottom of a downturn.
Conclusion: This is a conflicting condition with basically no change. The S&P 500 is at its 200 day moving average and will be closely looked at by the Institutions. The New Lows peak level has historically been a bottom so we will stay in cash right now. With Regulator required reporting on sub-prime problems due at the end of August, we could see a lot of downside pressure at that time. See the next chart ...
This is a close up view of where the New Lows are. The red dotted line is the historic high it made in the last 7 years. Note that it didn't start moving down yet, so the bottom is not in totally in place yet. I still expect the Institutional index to test its support.
How long can the New Lows remain at this level? The answer is likely tied into when the VIX (Volatility Index) tops out and drops. Where is the VIX on its rising journey? See the next chart ...
Chart A2: The NYA New Highs - Fast, SHORT TERM Model ...
Below is a faster model of change on our New Highs model ...
Today's Reading: The Fast New Highs indicator is still holding low, so we are not done with high volatility conditions.
Chart A6: Institutional Buying/Selling and "Leading Stocks vs. the Broad Market" ...
Today's Reading: The Ratio of Leadership Stocks to Broad Market Stocks remains low. It loss more ground and went from a minus 1.50 to a minus 3.27 Friday, and down to -3.89 yesterday.
Conclusion: The Leadership Stock Ratio has been at it largest Negative level since June of 2006. Sustainable upside rallies only happen when the Ratio goes positive.
(20min delay)