tuesday turnips, page-7

'morning mongombolo

Re; " ... McHugh has a turn date due tomorrow for the USA-- it's quite possible it may have come a day early? "

IMO it's worth noting that huge volumes were behind the early phases of the DJIA's rally which started in earnest on March 10.

Yesterday's surge was in the context of relatively light volumes - about 20% below the 50 day MA for volume, which prompts these scenarios:
. Lower resistance from bears - on holiday or perhaps resting after a couple of weeks of heavy pushing [are bears becoming exhausted?]
. Bulls are still tentative & buyers relatively thin on the ground despite the inspiration of the one day 3% rally
. Bears have been spooked & are becoming tentative

IMO much of the rally was probably activation of tight stop losses of those in short positions rather than heavy buying.

IMO it's all worth noting that recent weekly charts are showing compression - we may see a period of range trading but my gut feeling is a breakout either up or down is in the wind.

Given the DJIA's 3% jump tonight may see:
. indecision on a repeat of low volumes, making Thursday [our highest volume day & recently our most bullish] the next batter in
. the rally may gain momentum, fuelled by taking out more stop losses
. profit-taking / shortselling may cause a sharp drop if new buyers stay on the sidelines - in recent times Wednesday has been our most bearish trading day

4YIO - NFA