re: congestion in s&p chart, ncp up Well the US is an...

re: congestion in s&p chart, ncp up Well the US is an interesting little tacker lately.

Looks certain for a bonafide explosion to the upside if the 885 low on the SPOOS is not taken out this week.

A 20 year bull market is born.. lol

Whatever the case, here are the latest COT. My conclusion to this, speculators have been unwiding their short positions of late, albeit predominately long.

There is hardly any significant bias from the commercials, the long to short difference is a mere 15k contracts this time last week. No clear bias as yet. But it is beginning to look rather bullish. The bulls are celebrating on the streets drinking their tequila claiming a new bull market is upon us, and we will see the DJI trade at 15k by end of year. We shall soon see!

Yes, I am short and my stops are approximately 10 points away, too close for comfort and will short more this week at an opportune time. grrrr.

&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 04/15/03 |
-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|----------------|-----------------|----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADING| LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(S&P 500 INDEX X $250.00) OPEN INTEREST: 627,087
COMMITMENTS
50,502 75,892 3,932 424,219 409,583 478,653 489,407 148,434 137,680

CHANGES FROM 04/08/03 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 18,073)
1,220 -189 457 4,135 2,131 5,812 2,399 12,261 15,674

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
8.1 12.1 0.6 67.6 65.3 76.3 78.0 23.7 22.0

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 176)
30 22 13 94 64 133 90


E-MINI S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE
REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 04/15/03 |
-------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|----------------|-----------------|----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADING| LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
($50 X S&P 500 INDEX) OPEN INTEREST: 565,475
COMMITMENTS
75,719 126,219 4,564 119,316 390,555 199,599 521,338 365,876 44,137

CHANGES FROM 04/08/03 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 60,201)
12,789 10,209 -4,110 5,106 45,594 13,785 51,693 46,416 8,508

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
13.4 22.3 0.8 21.1 69.1 35.3 92.2 64.7 7.8

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 173)
52 55 15 45 39 107 99