tuesday, page-46

In '38 after the 182 day low, the DJIA rallied 16 days into high on day 198, then had a small retracement of about 3/16th into a low on the second trading day after the high.

From the high at day 198, into the high for the entire 224 day move, was an increase of 3.72%.

Our last rally from the 180 day low was 15 days into a high of 1074.77, then on the second trading day after that high we also had a low with a similar retracement of the move as occured in '38.

We seem to me to be tracking '38 fairly closely.

An increase of 3.72% from 1074.77 gives a high of 1114.83.

Note that the move up in '38 from 182 low to 198 high was 19.82% and our move from 180 low to 195 high was "only" 8.35%. Does that mean we have to play catch up now, or are we moving slower? I don't know. I can see arguements for both.

In '38 there was another high on day 208, followed by a pullback into day 215, then rally into the high for the entire 224 day move.

Using the same time periods, retracements and extensions, that would give us:

- a high on either Friday 25 or Monday 28 September at about 1090, followed by,

- a pullback to a low on Friday 2 or Monday 5 October at about 1065.5, and then,

- 9 days of rally to the high on Monday 12 or Tuesday 13 October at around 1114.83.