HDR hardman resources limited

And this should be read ... copied from Motley Fool ... thanks...

  1. 20,305 Posts.
    And this should be read ... copied from Motley Fool ... thanks to WShak.

    "The more I read on Tullow, the more convinced I am becoming that Tullow is a stock to hold beyond the distribution of takover shares.
    Sorry, don't have links:"

    "Tullow held an analyst presentation yesterday focussed on their exploration strategy, organisation and opportunities. It provided more depth and detail to the “four play” categorisation first elucidated at their interim presentation, and covered in our note “Focus on Exploration” on September 12th. We were struck by the high level of activity in the exploration team. Part of this is to redress the gap that Tullow has traditionally had a weaker reputation in exploration than it enjoys in production.
    • The conference was about a lot more than Uganda, but there was obviously going to be a lot of interest in the drilling campaign, which continues to shape up well. In our view investors have still not caught up with the enthusiasm in the company. The Kingfisher well, the fourth consecutive discovery, had been announced as a success before the conference and there was little direct new news. But we have the clear impression that Tullow are moving forward with a confidence beyond that which has been publicly announced. Is this premature? We don't think so. In other areas Tullow tends to the cautious side (production targets, financial structure), and Kingfisher ticks the four basic requirements for a working reservoir (trap, seal, hydrocarbon charge and flowability).

    The remaining issue is the scale, and Manu Wope, the exploration manager for South and East Africa, appeared confident and mentioned “three elephant fields” at Kingfisher, Pelican and Ngassa. The confirmation of oil above the target depth not only reduces risk on the target itself in Kingfisher, but also for Ngassa, which will probably be drilled late in 2007.
    • Tullow is undertaking significant additional seismic activity to enhance their understanding of the opportunities. This is not just across all three blocks in Uganda, but also in Madagascar and Tanzania (Hardman) and in other regions. Tullow was keen to stress the potential read-across from Uganda to Madagascar, further south along the E. African rift.
    • We are surprised that, at a time when there is so much activity and opportunity on which to focus in Uganda, Tullow is so aggressive in accelerating potential elsewhere.

    The strong pipeline should allow it to pace for a marathon – instead it is running at a sprint, with the risk of stretch on resources. We think we may understand why – and suggest that Tullow could be worried that as its consolidation with Hardman settles and the scale of Uganda becomes clearer in 2007, they may themselves become a clearer acquisition target. Worse, unless Tullow can show some active evidence of the potential from other high impact opportunities, the focus of the bid on Uganda will pass the value in other areas to the new shareholders. When I proposed this interpretation to one of the management team, he confirmed “the logic of that strategic assessment “.

    • Our conclusion. Tullow does not have the tests let alone proof at this stage of the scale of discovery in Uganda. But their actions and behaviour (and nobody has a better view than they do) are fully consistent with genuine and directed excitement. Uganda could indeed be a transformational discovery beyond the size of Tullow at its present scale. Tullow look to be on the edge of a seismic shift not only in their exploration but also in their corporate scale and ultimate structure."

    and

    Goodbodys
    SG adds ... it's 4.08 now.
    Tullow (Add, Closing Price £3.93)

    Analyst Day.
    Analyst: Gerry Hennigan
    "Tullow's analyst day in Dublin focussed on exploration activity across all the regions of current interest and while detailed in terms of information, there was limited additional newsflow beyond that previously provided. That said, portfolio expansion was a central theme and Tullow clearly intends to further its growth in a controlled manner. A summary, by region, of relevant prospects, etc. to be drilled prior to the end of 2007 includes: (i) UK (North Sea) - two wells to drill prior to year end, a further four to five next year, and results from the 24th licensing round in the North Sea pending; (ii) Hardman Area (Mauritania and South America) - eight to ten prospects to be drilled in Mauritania with a further four wells planned for Guyane and Suriname combined; (iii) West Africa (Cote D'Ivoire, Ghana, Gabon, Angola) - eight wells planned, eight farm-ins under review, three new blocks to be announced (two of which are imminent), and actively pursuing licensing rounds; (iv) South & East Africa - (Uganda, Namibia, Madagascar) - one well ongoing (Kingfisher), three planned (Nzizi in Uganda, and two appraisal wells in Kudu) with the potential of further prospects in Uganda to be drilled post the processing of seismic in H1 2007; and (v) South East Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) - two wells planned for Kohat in Pakistan and up to four in India on the CB-ON-1 licence (south of the Cairn field). At a corporate level the clear message was a focus on core strengths and inherent expertise in certain geological 'plays'. The intention is to leverage that capability to expand beyond the current scope of operations, with as many as 170 potential prospects according to management. The roadmap, in our view, points to a belief within the company that it is now of sufficient size and expertise (50 geologists and geophysicists) to enable it to seek new opportunities in areas such as Mainland Europe (Netherlands, Norway, etc.), South America and South East Asia (Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Vietnam, etc.). As such management has raised the 'bar' on its ambitions and outlined its objective towards extending its growth, which we believe will be both through organic development and further acquisitions."

    "It seems more and more obvious that TLW are very keen on Uganda and that is where they see the vast majority of value in Hardman. And to think, the Hardman share price attributed nothing to it prior to the bid ... :o/"

    WShak
 
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