The Liberals say sacking Malcolm Turnbull would just make things worse. Defeat would become a rout.
But how much worse could it possibly get than what the Liberals do to themselves every week?
Check just the past month,
Turnbull has produced a dud electricity scheme that won't cut prices for a decade, and even then by a lousy $2 a week that Turnbull could not eveb guarantee.
Then came this police raid on Bill Shorten's old union offices, highlighting a clumsy use of state power to cripple a political rival - and ending in farce and humiliation for the Employment Minister, Michaelia Cash.
Now we've got a citizenship debacle Turnbull insisted wouldn't happen, and therefore justifed him relying on the disputed votes of two ministers now ruled ineligible: the Nationals Barnaby Joyce and Fiona Nash.
And, of course, Newspoll keeps reminding the Liberals that they are unelectable, behind Labor 46 per cent to 54, with donations drying up and members in despair.
Turnbull must go - and go next month, when Parliament meets for the last time before Christmas.
I've gone through the arguments before:
[The Liberals] cannot wait so long that any leadership change is just a hospital pass that can at best turn a wipe-out into a bad loss.
Consider: the next election is due next August at the earliest, and May 2019 at the latest.
That means the Liberals must be in fighting shape by next July to be ready to pounce on the election date that best suits them.
The Liberals must be in fighting shape to take on Bill Shorten and Labor before the next election. Picture: AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko
To get election-ready in just 10 months at most clearly involves replacing Turnbull. But the new leader must also get a chance to show voters what they can do, or else what’s the point?
For that, Turnbull’s replacement needs this next Christmas break to have the free time to work out strategies for the new year.
That break will also be crucial to give any new ministers in a revamped team free time of their own to study their new portfolios without being first chopped up in parliament and the press.
Turnbull’s replacement also needs the chance to hand down at least one Budget to show what direction they’re taking and, hopefully, produce voter-pleasing results by election day.
But, again, time is crucial. To produce a new Budget, due in May, the new leader and (possibly new) treasurer needs the Christmas break to work on new policies.
It adds up to this: December is the Liberals’ last and best chance to save themselves by picking a new leader.
History confirms it. For instance, Paul Keating replaced Bob Hawke as prime minister in December 1991, giving this unpopular leader time to establish himself and win a supposedly unwinnable election in March 1993.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/a...h/news-story/a88e2501f99a97783bece667c82496cf
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- Turnbull Must Go Next Month.
Turnbull Must Go Next Month.
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