I have a different view to some other posters, and believe that TRS has turned the corner (regardless of the volatility in the last 24 hours which IMO has more to do with low volumes and bot trading). This view is based on the following;
- The month on month improvement in sales should not be underestimated. I realize that one months sales does not make a result, but I'm not sure how much more could be expected. Previous announcements pointed to Sep as a month where the new promotional strategies would be in full flight (including the full impact of the new GM merchandising), so Sep performance is an important indicator.
- Other retailers like SFH are going backwards in the current environment;
- I actually think Sudano's credibility has taken a significant step forward at the AGM. He has been spruiking that he has stabilised the business for weeks, and the results are now showing that. Before this announcement, I was concerned that he was the problem and had to go, but I'm now OK to give him more time;
- There will always be doubts about the H1 results until they are in the bank, but as reiterated by the Board, they take their continuous disclosure obligations very seriously (including the new Director), so they need to be very comfortable that the H1 result is on track (and they will have known the first 2 months trading in Oct when they made the AGM announcement);
- Over the next few quarters, TRS will be cycling weaker comps, and good comp store growth will add to sentiment;
- The DC being operational without problems should benefit operating leverage as sales strengthen;
- Before this announcement, the price was reflecting bankruptcy risk which I believe is no longer a material issue. Even a stabilisation should mean a SP of at least $6-$7;
- Discount variety is a thriving sector in many other global markets, so if TRS can continue this improvement, the SP could easily get well into the teens in a relatively short time period.
- A decent H1 dividend should also provide a significant SP boost.
Volumes in the last 24 hours suggest no serious buyers or sellers, but renewed interest from an insto or 2 could drive material price changes in the next few months. As I've learnt the hard way many times, share prices tend to have their best gains while everyone is debating why they will fall back down again. Good luck holders.
I have a different view to some other posters, and believe that...
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