Turning Point, page-72

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13/06/16

10:54

Post #: 18019380
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Originally posted by freida ↑

Just to encapsulate Mongys comments and opinions the following is a summary of where I think we are almost certainly at(note my comments /opinion on the huge similarities between the Centrebridge template that saved BLY when it ran out of borrowing options that it might find acceptable. This is the one point where you will eventually have to decide whether you agree with my opinion,or not.It will probably need time to absorb what Im confident will be in the deal documents. Lets wait for the documants in the mail before making any significant decisions on how to deal with what is a complicated and quite difficult process we are looking at.
* HZN ran out of reserves-based Bank borrowings options and had to resort to alternatives to repay the Bonds and pay down the bank borrowings.
* The balance of probability as to who to get further into bed (equity-wise)with is that IMC, and/or the major shareholder, would be the first port of call for a partnership deal that consisted of new equity and loans from an existing large holder.
* IMC is "it". As to the major shareholder the answer is "I dont know"
*Using the BLY template as if it IS the template for the HZN deal then its almost certain that there wont be any other bidder than "IMC " in the next few months,unless they decide to take the HZN Board on on the exclusivity of the IMC deal.See later.
* Barring some evidence to the contrary the balance of probability is that the HZN board view favourably a loan/equity deal with IMC to the exclusion of the prospect of a better equity deal from another party.There is almost certainly an exclusivity clause in existence now between HZN and IMC.Part of the likely favourable view that HZN has of IMCs loan/increased equity package is that HZN have seen a plan for the future compiled by IMC that disposes the board to view IMC as a good business partner for the future. Thus the IMC package is a loan,increased equity position, and a game plan that wont just be a bail-out of the present financial situation.
S0- forget OSH ,WPL et al making a bid for HZN to stymie IMCs plans for HZN,subject however to one of these companies challenging the HZN boards right to deal exclusively with IMC in the near future. It could happen. At this level the participants play hard ball.Shareholders could yet get to watch a battle for HZN,IMO

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Freida

From your observations on bly and general understanding what do u think we will see of the agreements between imc/hzn board that govern the deal? I.e. Any exclusivity agreements, imc business case for hzn which supported the long term proposal in particular aquisition of an additional approx 15% of hzn within 5 years under the terms of the warrants.

HZN Price at posting: 5.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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Turning Point, page-72

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