I've been watching the market action today on this and for holders I would definitely be encouraged, I know technically it's looking pretty weak but it was bought on its lows today on a fair bit of strength. Daily charts look okay. Does anyone know the exact timing of the quarterly? Is it end of the month approximately. I've always said I liked it around $2.50 so still watching. Maybe today in hindsight I should have.
The problem with the last quarterly I think is that the market focussed too much on the headline EBITDA growth and in particular it paid too much attention to the 7% decline in the theme park division, but as Greg Shaw mentioned (and in the interview explanation upcoming) he also attributes some $700,000 in pre paid tickets which is yet to show up. I suppose the other problem which was the elephant in the room was the PE of 20.
But if you have a look at the interview with Alan Kohler Greg makes some good references to this new Hypoxi weight loss product and the licensing from that, which does look exciting. Anyway you might have to get a trial subscription to watch, but worth a look here:
http://www.eurekareport.com.au/eurekatv?channel=all&id=911766&autostart=true
Anyway the next quarterly will be interesting to see the progress of the two new sites at Atlanta, Georgia (November ‘14), Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (December ‘14) on quarterly revnue. With the Health Clubs and Main Event's aggressive roll out in the US I can see their proportional EBITDA increasing from 21% to easily 30-40%. The other thing Greg makes out is the double whammy effect of a lower AUD which sees not only inward tourism in the Gold Coast but also Australians may choose to stay domestically to spend their leisure time.
Anyway my only negatives I can see is that their overheads and property costs are way too high. Even though each Main Event is returning 30% EBITDA annually, they spend 7% each just on corporate overheads, which Greg attributes to the strong management team they set up there in the US. Anyway I think the market has overlooked Ardent's US exposure so for this reason I think it's beginning to look attractive.
Disclosure: Not held at the moment, but may change!
